Welcome
to a conversation that is going to bounce around a bit. Try to
keep up.
I
started this essay a few years ago. Actually, few years may not
even cover it properly. We’re talking at least three Super Bowl
starts for Tom Brady ago (and possibly five).
Patrick
Mahomes hadn’t started a game yet. And, to be honest, I’m not
certain if he had even been drafted when I was first kicking the
thought around, typed out the title, and saved it for later efforts.
So,
why now?
Well,
Carson Wentz and Jared Goff have been traded. And while that might
sound like a real reason to be motivated about the exploration
to identify the next great quarterback in the NFL, consider these
two items…
First,
Wentz and Goff—actually, Goff and Wentz if we want the order
correct—were the first two selections in the 2016 NFL draft.
Second,
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the first two selections
in 2015.
Mull
that over for a minute. Then try and develop an argument about
how drafting quarterbacks works out well. Try to defend the though
that it’s just an activity to get the selection right from given
options.
Sometimes
the simplest answer is the best answer, and the best answer is
the easiest to understand.
Best
quarterback? Mahomes. Likely best for the next ten years? Mahomes.
(Thanks for coming everybody! Have a safe drive home.)
Heck,
let’s keep moving along anyway, and we’ll add this idea…
Mahomes
isn’t going anywhere. 2017 draft choice there. But there are
whispers about his 2017 first round quarterback cohorts… Deshaun
Watson and Mitchell Trubiskey. And 2018 selections Lamar Jackson,
Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield are all on their first contracts.
So…
It’s
possible that by the time training camp opens for the 2021 season,
Patrick Mahomes will be the only starting quarterback in the
NFL drafted in the first round, signed to his second contract
(or more), that has only played for one organization.
(I
said possible. All you folks that want to scream “Aaron Rodgers”
at me, please sit down. He will be in Green Bay. Got it. But you
can’t tell me some folks haven’t at least been thinking someone
could make an offer the Packers can’t refuse. And, yes, I know
there might just be another quarterback you could point toward.
We’ll get there.)
Let’s
take a spin around the league and see if we can spot some greatness.
We’ll break it down by division.
AFC
East
Every
time someone wants me to consider Josh Allen an elite quarterback,
my brain flashes back to January of 2020. During the second half
of a playoff game against Houston, he spent the second half of
the game snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I mean, he
was gaining more yards for the Houston defense than his own offense.
And
let’s start counting. Mahomes. Watson. If I offered you Mahomes
or Watson straight up for Allen, you’d trade him. Done. Trade
him and be smiling that someone could be so crazy as to trade
you Patrick Mahomes for Josh Allen. Moving along. Wilson. Rodgers.
Brady. Forget the trade idea, since those guys are in the second
half of their careers, and arguably deeply in the second half.
Is Allen right now better than any of them? Jackson has an MVP
award. Tannehill has multiple playoff victories. (At what point
do we move away from elite and into a group of solid and securely
a starter, albeit with a great deal of potential.)
That
said, he’s good. Really good. I just can’t place him into the
elite yet. Not a conversation I’m ready to have. And yet… the
AFC East…
There’s
no one else here.
Talk
is Miami is ok with Tua Tagovailoa, but looking. New York appears
all but certain to move on from Sam Darnold, but crying because
the top draft choice slipped away and working on the media hype
for next season when he’s still the starter. New England is prepping
a fan-loyalty contest for next season. (If you’re the season ticket
holder in Section 204, Row 1, Seat 3, congratulations. You’re
currently number two on the New England depth chart.)
Josh
Allen. He’s the only one here to consider.
AFC
North
Whispers
are that Pittsburgh is waiting to see the final salary cap limits
for next year, but they may be making a change. And that means
this conference is otherwise set, and could be completely set.
Jackson,
Mayfield and Joe Burrow.
I’m
not ready to place any of them solidly into elite status. But…
Jackson is an MVP winner that has been getting the Ravens to the
playoffs. Not winning in the playoffs. But, getting to the playoffs.
Mayfield has the swagger and seems to relish playing in Cleveland.
Burrow isn’t going anywhere.
We’ll
move Jackson and Mayfield to the next round.
AFC
South
And…
yuck.
Indy
now has Carson Wentz. Interesting trade. A fingers-crossed project.
Houston
has the electric Watson. The world is split on whether or not
they end up trading him, despite their claims he’s staying.
Jacksonville
has the number one pick. Trevor Lawrence is exciting… please refer
back to the opening of this essay, notations of top selections
in 2015 and 2016, and prepare to defend your work on Lawrence
being a sure thing. (I’ll give you a head start. Watson also played
for Clemson. We can discuss at a different time. But Lawrence
is not the next great yet.)
Ryan
Tannehill is the remaining starter. He’s become decent and reliable,
but more importantly to those pointing at his years in Miami,
he’s finally been consistent and available week-to-week. Great
for their organization. I wouldn’t call him great as a quarterback.
Watson
is the pick for next greatest consideration, but he may not even
be in this division when the next year kicks off.
AFC
West
Mahomes.
Of course, Mahomes. He is, bar none, the most talented quarterback
in the NFL right now.
Beyond
that… yawn.
Justin
Herbert looks really, really good. Still a bit early on him. Derek
Carr and Drew Lock are solid overall. You could defend both as
decent starting quarterbacks, but word is that both Las Vegas
and Denver want more (and possibly someone else).
Mahomes
moves along.
NFC
East
Empty
division.
I
mean that. Watch.
Jalen
Hurts, Daniel Jones, Alex Smith, Dak Prescott.
You
could make an argument that Prescott deserves consideration. I’d
listen. I wouldn’t agree. But I’d listen. (Remember my notes about
Josh Allen and the second half of a playoff game? My memory recalls
two seasons ago that Prescott led the Cowboys against a struggling
Patriots squad and absolutely wilted. And then, the team fell
apart to end the year. I’m not saying my opinions are perfect
or even fair. Just saying that Brady and Mahomes wave MVP trophies
and Super Bowl rings in my direction when I recall their weak
and ugly moments. Prescott does not.)
No
one moves on.
NFC
North
Goff…
pass.
Bears…
don’t have a quarterback.
Vikings…
don’t have a quarterback. (I know. Kirk Cousins. Prove me wrong.
They don’t have a quarterback.)
Packers…
Aaron Rodgers. Hall of Famer. Currently great, not next great.
No
one moves on, but Rodgers gets mentioned.
NFC
South
All
you need to know about the NFC South is that Tom Brady is the
best quarterback in the division and no other quarterback comes
close. There is no second best in the division… as in, there is
not even a future star in the making… as in, there may not even
be a quarterback on any divisional roster other than Tampa’s that
will be on that team’s roster for next season, never mind 2022.
Seriously.
Drew
Brees has started his yet-to-be-announced-but-coming retirement.
Matt Ryan is in Atlanta, but the organization hasn’t decided if
they are viewing veterans like Ryan and Julio Jones as part of
plans for building, rebuilding, trading, releasing, or whatever.
Carolina is a work in progress, where all reports are they might
be willing to sacrifice a ton to bring someone in. All of which
means that for New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina, none of those
organizations can say if next year’s starting quarterback is even
on their roster right now. And that means there is no next great
quarterback on their rosters right now.
No
one moves on, and Brady keeps winning.
NFC
West
Interesting.
Really
interesting.
Russell
Wilson is good and reliable. No, he’s actually great and reliable.
However, the organization has had troubles putting a complete
roster around him that can advance once in the playoffs. A few
seasons ago, with a title and two Super Bowl starts on his resume,
he was a sure thing for consideration as the next great. So, what
about now?
Would
you believe Russell Wilson is 32? True. Turns 33 next November.
And reports are floating around that there might be a bit of a
disconnect between him and the organization. (For the record,
I don’t buy it. Seattle is a decent place to play… he gets elite
money without the elite media scrutiny. They have put playoff
teams on the field with him for the majority of his career. I
don’t think he’s moving any time soon.)
End
result is I’m not sure if Wilson qualifies as the next great quarterback,
but I will put him there because he’s playing well, not necessarily
considering retirement off of the current or even next contract,
and deserves respect. But I do believe Wilson is going to be one
of those amazing sidenotes that exists between Brady’s legendary
career coming to an end as Mahomes brings his to feel speed.
Next
up, Kyler Murray. And this one fascinates me, because the Cardinals
are assembling some terrific pieces and he’s been very good. I
like Kyler Murray.
Which
leaves us with Matthew Stafford and Jimmy Garoppolo.
Wilson
and Murray move along.
Summary
If
we’re looking at the next five to ten years, and trying to debate
who will dominate the conversations created over many recent years
by Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, well…
My
run through the divisions means you have Allan, Jackson, Mayfield,
Watson, Mahomes, Wilson and Murray for consideration.
Could
there be surprises? Sure. I included Murray in the final batch,
and you can ask the Cardinals and Chargers about possibilities.
(You should also call Arizona and ask how many attempts it takes
to get to a starting-caliber NFL quarterback.)
But
I think Mahomes is still standing alone on the summit. All alone.
I think the rest have questions, and could just as easily be tomorrow’s
forgotten wannabes as they are starting quarterbacks still playing
when the playoffs start next January.
The
media wants us to have possibilities. That’s why writers post
articles with claims like Josh Allen has already proven himself
to be better than Mahomes. (Seriously. There were a handful of
those. We need to take their press passes away.) We create villains
and heroes, tear them down, and build them back up.
But
nothing is a sure thing. And that’s true for both good and bad.
If certainty was a part of it, more first round selections would
be with their original teams. And before people start building
the hype and making the claims, it would be helpful if some of
these guys could win in the playoffs, stop losing yards more effectively
that gaining, and be more than the flavor of the day for a few
games.
The
next great thing? It’s the current great thing. And the debate
isn’t one that lasts too long.