Late
last Sunday afternoon, I was running a couple of errands. Nothing
fancy… gas for the car… debating picking up something like hot
chocolate.
I
had the radio on, and was listening to an update of the 4pm games.
Someone at the titanic battle between San Francisco and Oakland
made the following observation (not a direct quote): “Alex Smith
has to be happy, since he’s playing well and is 16 for 32 for
about 180-yards.”
Umm…
what?
16
for 32 and he had to be happy?
Hey…
I’m all for winning meaning everything. Quarterback plays like
crap, team wins, locker room is a good place to be. But the 49ers
have struggled at times just to be awful so far, and they weren’t
exactly thrashing the Raiders at that point. (Or… ahem… at any
point.) Silly me, I know… but I’m thinking Smith was anything
but happy at the time, including a guess that he was wondering
if he was going to get yanked from the game.
(He
wound up 16 for 33 and under 200-yards. Yeah… a win is great.
Got to think he wasn’t amazed by those stats and the team not
cracking 20-points for the game.)
And
that folks, is a really good look at my week. From my perspective,
very little made sense and nothing went as expected. And even
the comments I heard about every game just managed to tick me
off even more.
Calvin
Johnson caught a ball for the last score in a game where the Giants
easily handled the Lions… but that score beat the spread.
The
Broncos get Sanchez to cough up the ball a couple of times… doesn’t
matter and they lose at home.
The
Chargers… well… I’m not wasting space here on Norv Turner and
that group.
The
bright spot was watching New Orleans win big… watching New England
get a victory. Things that had nothing to do with selections for
the week and just simply having some fun watching the games. That
was good.
We
have now completed enough of the season to know the reality is
simple… there are very few teams in the NFL worth even considering
solid… forget calling them good. Those that are good are likely
all in the AFC. (Pittsburgh, New England, New York (Jets), Baltimore,
and Indianapolis. The good NFC teams all have been question marks
this year.) More than ever, any team is capable of a great week…
any team is capable of horrendous play… and you shouldn’t laugh
at the suggestion that each and every team can win any week.
On
the divisional front, games featuring such a contest ended up
with a 2-1 record last week. There are four such games on this
slate… featuring the ever popular Denver against Oakland, Green
Bay and Minnesota, and New York versus Dallas. (No one really
looks at Seattle and Arizona on that level… ever popular… right?)
Thought
we’d take a look at Little Miss Sunshine for this week’s
quotes. (I love this movie. And most of the very best quotes…
from Grandpa… didn’t make it. I couldn’t cross out all the swearing.)
Pittsburgh
(3) at Miami
– “I couldn’t help noticing Dwayne
has stopped speaking.” “Oh, yeah, he’s taken a vow of silence.”
One of the most interesting games on the schedule. The Dolphins
are 3-2 and solidly nestled in as the third team in the AFC East.
It’s a tough place to be… and after just five games, even with
games to go against the Patriots and Jets, they wouldn’t be wrong
to start wondering about their wild card positioning. Enter the
Steelers… right now the favorites in the AFC North, but more simply
a playoff threat… and this game has all sorts of tie-breaker implications
built in. A couple of fun facts to start your thinking about this
one: (1) The Dolphins are 0-2 at home. Yup. All road wins. (2)
The Dolphins… even with a winning record… have been outscored
by 23 points. The average score per game has been 22 (opponent)
– 18 (Miami). Ok… I think we’ve got the flavor of this game. Ready
for the opinion? This should be a defensive battle… and, I suppose
surprisingly since I don’t expect a ton of scoring… that favors
Pittsburgh. The Dolphins are going to get to Roethlisberger. They’ll
probably sack him 2 or 3 times. The problem is… the Steelers are
best defending the run. In my mind, if Miami can’t run the ball
that means Pittsburgh is likely to control time of possession…
giving Roethlisberger more attempts to change the flow of the
game regardless of how often he winds up on the ground… and you
see where this is going.
Bob: Pittsburgh
Terry: Miami
Mike: Pittsburgh
Mike Jr: Miami
Molly: Pittsburgh
Gus: Pittsburgh
Sam: Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
at Atlanta (3½)
– “Good night Dwayne.” “(written)
Don’t kill yourself tonight.” “Not on your watch Dwayne. I wouldn’t
do that to you.” “(written) Welcome to hell.” “Thanks Dwayne.
Coming from you that means a lot.” I should find
this game more intriguing than I do. For example, a win would
work wonders for the Bengals… getting them to 3-3 and back into
discussions of teams with a shot in the AFC. Problem is… Cincy
stinks, and Atlanta is coming off of a rough loss. I can’t get
a read on either team. What I can tell you is this… Atlanta generally
plays well at home, and Cincinnati hasn’t been much on the road.
Bob: Atlanta
Terry: Cincinnati
Mike: Atlanta
Mike Jr: Atlanta
Molly: Atlanta
Gus: Cincinnati
Sam: Cincinnati
Jacksonville
at Kansas City (9)
– “Can I get the, uh, waffles? And,
um, what does ‘a la mode-y’ mean?” “Oh that means it comes with
ice cream!” “Ok. A la mode-y then.” This game
is getting alot more attention than anyone would have predicted
back in July or August. Both clubs are even or better and within
shouting distance of the top of their division. (If not… as KC
is… actually winning their division.) Thing is… even record or
not… no one in the NFL, even Buffalo, gives up points like Jacksonville.
Ok… ok… hardly fair… they’ve played one more game than the Bills.
Still… allowing 28 points per game is hard to recover from, and
Indianapolis, Buffalo, and Tennessee all scored right around that
mark against Jacksonville. The trick here is simple… can Kansas
City keep Jacksonville off the board? Let’s see… Jacksonville
doesn’t know what is going on with their quarterback… only Houston
(last week, with Kansas City on the road) has put up more than
20 on the Chiefs. I can’t believe I’m doing this. But yeah… Chiefs
by 9… and I like them.
Bob: Kansas City
Terry: Jacksonville
Mike: Kansas City
Mike Jr: Kansas City
Molly: Jacksonville
Gus: Jacksonville
Sam: Jacksonville
Philadelphia
at Tennessee (3)
– “Olive, Richard is an idiot. I
like a woman with meat on her bones.” And here
we have quite possibly the best game no one is going to watch.
In fact, you could watch a Sunday night recap of games… catch
the scores for every game… and chances are you would be in the
minority of those watching the highlights if you even remember
the Titans and Eagles played this week, forget remembering they
were playing each other. And yet… here they are… both 4-2… both
threatening in their division… both looking potentially good for
the postseason. The Titans enter this game having dismantled Jacksonville,
and arguably looking like the team many expected for the first
time all season. If I were Philadelphia, I’d actually be concerned
that Collins could start at quarterback. And sticking on the Philly
side of the world… Kolb looked very good against Atlanta, and
the Eagles in general were quite impressive last week. The thing
that tips this decision for me is the loss of DeSean Jackson.
Bob: Tennessee
Terry: Tennessee
Mike: Philadelphia
Mike Jr: Philadelphia
Molly: Tennessee
Gus: Tennessee
Sam: Tennessee
Washington
at Chicago (3)
– “I can’t slow down. I can’t slow
down.” “Come on, Olive.” “Come on, sweetie, jump. Jump in the
car.” Ever feel like you couldn’t catch a break?
Take a look at this one. Chicago is playing exceptional defense…
about 16 points a game against them. Washington isn’t playing
badly, just not perfectly or great… at over 19 points per. Amazingly,
the offenses are playing… well… in a word, yawn. Giving up 19
a game? The Redskins are scoring just 18. And… umm… that’s more
than the Bears put up for all the talk they were generating. Funny,
funny research in this one. It’s looking too close to call. Except
for this. See… the Redskins haven’t done anything spectacular.
They have two running backs that… for lack of any reason to debate
it… are delivering identical performances. Their quarterback has
been ok, with McNabb tossing 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Nothing amazing… just slow and steady… right? Ok… keep that in
mind. See, when everything else appears so close, it sure seems
like something unexpected will tilt the scales. Say… like… a turnover.
Cutler has been good this season so far, but in losing 2 of the
last 3 the Bears have looked beatable even at home, and far from
consistent. In fact, this week their offensive line is looking
at quite possibly its fifth different combination of the year,
including two players that combined have less than a year of experience.
Bob: Washington
Terry: Chicago
Mike: Washington
Mike Jr: Chicago
Molly: Washington
Gus: Chicago
Sam: Chicago
Cleveland
at New Orleans (13)
– “Everybody just pretend to be
normal.” New Orleans finally looked good last
week, while the Browns began to play more closely to what has
been expected of them.
Bob: New Orleans
Terry: Cleveland
Mike: Cleveland
Mike Jr: New Orleans
Molly: Cleveland
Gus: New Orleans
Sam: New Orleans
Buffalo
at Baltimore (13)
– “That young stuff is the best
stuff in the whole world.” “Hey! Hey! Dad! That’s enough! Stop
it!” “Will you kindly not interrupt me, Richard! See, right now
you’re jailbait, they’re jailbait. It’s perfect. I mean, you hit
18, man, you’re talkin’ about three to five.”
Ordinarily I’d tell you this game was a difficult one. I mean,
after all, two touchdowns is tough to accomplish as separation
and Baltimore isn’t exactly blowing out scoreboards every week.
But I have a feeling the Bills are going to find a very ticked
off Ravens squad taking the field on Sunday. And I don’t envy
them for it.
Bob: Baltimore
Terry: Baltimore
Mike: Baltimore
Mike Jr: Baltimore
Molly: Buffalo
Gus: Buffalo
Sam: Buffalo
San
Francisco (3) at Carolina
– “Your packet has tickets in it,
and there’s your badge number.” “Okay.” “Is there anything else?”
“Uh, yeah. Is there a funeral home around here?”
Carolina is struggling to score 10 points a game. (I wish I was
kidding. I’m not.) 52 points in five games. No other club has
scored less than 80… meaning their 10 per game is well behind
Cleveland’s 14-plus per game. The Raiders… and remember, the 49ers
arguably decked the Raiders last week in a horrible game… have
scored twice as many points as the Panthers. Judging by the season
so far, look for the 49ers to win this one by a score of 17-7.
Bob: San Francisco
Terry: Carolina
Mike: San Francisco
Mike Jr: San Francisco
Molly: San Francisco
Gus: San Francisco
Sam: Carolina
St.
Louis at Tampa Bay (3)
– “We were driving for five or six
hours... and we thought he was napping...” So
far, I’ve taken seven favorites in eight games… and three of those
were large favorites. And I’d probably be concerned if not for
four things. (1) For some amazing reason, the Chargers are favored
this week. (2) I haven’t hit the four divisional games yet. (3)
These things have a way of balancing out. And, (4) The Bucs are
a favorite in this game. Hey… I like Tampa. I’m a fan of the team.
But when you have a 3-2 record while being outscored on average
by 6-points a game, something doesn’t pass the sniff test. Kansas
City isn’t being outscored… I could see them holding out for a
little bit longer in the AFC West. Willing to at least suspend
disbelief for them. But like Jacksonville, I think the reality
is that it’s only a matter of actually playing the full 16 games
before Tampa’s record really shows what is going on. It’s got
potential for the future here… but not this season. We’ll go with
the club playing better overall, and of late.
Bob: St. Louis
Terry: St. Louis
Mike: St. Louis
Mike Jr: St. Louis
Molly: St. Louis
Gus: St. Louis
Sam: St. Louis
Arizona
at Seattle (6)
– “Okay, you’re out. On the condition
that you never enter your daughter in a beauty pageant in the
state of California, ever again. Ever.” “I think we can live with
that.” The first of our divisional games for the
week. Let’s see what we’ve got. Seattle is at home… normally good
news for them, though they turned in quite possibly their best
game of the year last week on the road in Chicago. But let’s look
a bit deeper. First, the other Seattle wins on the year were home
games against San Francisco and San Diego. We considered those
impressive before. Right now? The 49ers and the Chargers? Not
so much. So what we need in order to truly believe in them is
a team arriving for that game that is so ridiculous in how they
are playing, we wouldn’t believe they could defeat Tampa Bay.
And just look, here we have division-leading Arizona… and sit
down, because they are being outscored by 10-points a game. I
know… I know. This week I decided to check out some of the scoring
and standings while looking over games. See what teams were doing,
and what they had to offer. Oh look… Jacksonville is getting creamed
and giving up 30-per. And how about Carolina? The most likely
way for the Panthers to score on offense is by giving up a safety.
And then there’s Arizona… giving up 28 each week while scoring
17. Neat. But… hold on… not that easy. See… the Cardinals got
trounced… slammed… wiped out… by San Diego and Atlanta. And there’s
the entire scoring difference. They’ve only played one divisional
game… and they won it. They also have a winning record in the
conference. Now… remember I said Seattle may have played their
best game last week? Hasselbeck went 25 for 40 and delivered an
absolutely average game. I mean, there’s nothing wrong with that.
Play average ball and don’t turn it over… the team will love you.
But something tells me that Arizona is the truly better team here.
They are coming in to it healthy and rested. And, they have made
the transition to quarterback Max Hall… sink or swim for the year.
Bob: Arizona
Terry: Seattle
Mike: Seattle
Mike Jr: Arizona
Molly: Seattle
Gus: Arizona
Sam: Arizona
New
England at San Diego (3)
– “There’s two kinds of people in
this world. There’s winners and there’s losers. Okay, you know
what the difference is? Winners don’t give up.”
I… you… I… umm… you know… still… I… how the hell is San Diego
favored here? No. Really. How? I’m going to save my observations
for later that the Patriots are beginning to look like the old
team that would a take care of business, one week at a time, chalk
up the victory and move along. Let’s just pick this one and move
on.
Bob: New England
Terry: San Diego
Mike: New England
Mike Jr: New England
Molly: New England
Gus: New England
Sam: San Diego
Oakland
at Denver (8)
– “Hey, I will pull this truck over,
right now!” “So, pull the truck over! You’re not gonna shut me
up! F**K you! I can say what I want!” These two
teams are strikingly similar this season. Both are 2-4… expected
of Oakland, but not of Denver. Both have delivered solid wins…
and embarrassing losses. The trick is… Denver just doesn’t score
early on in games, and that makes it very difficult to believe
in them for the big win. For the Broncos… injures have been a
problem… the offensive line has been a problem… putting the ball
in the end zone has been a problem… stop me when you see something
on this list that says big win to you… because amazingly, Kyle
Orton has having a strong season. They even have a decent passing
attack that could throttle Oakland. Seriously… the club is 2-4,
and he’s thrown 9 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. They simply
can’t put the ball in the end zone. And… that said… get ready.
Would you believe Oakland has won the last two in Denver? Yup…
that’s true. Would you believe they’ve split with Denver over
the past three seasons? Again… true. And… would you believe that
last year’s victory was led by, I kid you not, JaMarcus Russell?
Folks… divisional game. I’m taking the underdog.
Bob: Oakland
Terry: Oakland
Mike: Oakland
Mike Jr: Oakland
Molly: Oakland
Gus: Oakland
Sam: Denver
Minnesota
at Green Bay (2½)
– “I’d like to dedicate this to
my grandpa, who showed me these moves.” “Aww, that is so sweet.”
“Is he here? Where’s your grandpa right now?” “In the trunk of
our car.” Ok… update… so far I’m now at 7-5 for
the favorites and 0-2 for picking them in divisional games. Things
evened out after all. But the underdog run ends here. I don’t
know what everyone else was watching last week, but having seen
good chunks of the Dallas and Minnesota contest, to me it looked
like the Cowboys lost. It did not look like the Vikings won. Yeah…
sure… little things matter, and Minnesota did those little things
better last week. More to the point… I didn’t see anything that
told me they were a dangerous team that had turned things around.
I grant you, the Packers have been inconsistent and not even close
to the conference threat I expected to see. This is definitely
a game Favre thrives in… regular season, big audience and some
sort of fancy subplot, high stakes… and doesn’t turn the ball
over to end it. But I sense more desperation for Green Bay here.
They have the Jets, Cowboys and Vikings again lined up to follow
this game. This is a turning point situation. And, reality check…
even with their win over Dallas, Minnesota isn’t moving the ball
well.
Bob: Green Bay
Terry: Green Bay
Mike: Minnesota
Mike Jr: Minnesota
Molly: Minnesota
Gus: Minnesota
Sam: Green Bay
New
York (Giants) at Dallas (3)
– “I wish I could just sleep until
I was eighteen and skip all this crap - high school and everything
- just skip it.” “Do you know who Marcel Proust is?” “He’s the
guy you teach.” “Yeah. French writer. Total loser. Never had a
real job. Unrequited love affairs. Gay. Spent 20 years writing
a book almost no one reads. But he’s also probably the greatest
writer since Shakespeare. Anyway, he uh... he gets down to the
end of his life, and he looks back and decides that all those
years he suffered, those were the best years of his life, ‘cause
they made him who he was. All those years he was happy? You know,
total waste. Didn’t learn a thing. So, if you sleep until you’re
18... ah, think of the suffering you're gonna miss. I mean high
school? High school - those are your prime suffering years. You
don’t get better suffering than that.” Last week
I told you that the Giants have managed to win 5-straight for
several seasons in a row now. I think that’s going to continue
here. For three weeks in a row the defense has looked solid. That’s
bad news for a Dallas club that has been shooting itself in the
foot all year. The Giants have never been afraid of playing the
Cowboys on the road… especially at the new stadium.
Bob: New York
Terry: Dallas
Mike: New York
Mike Jr: New York
Molly: New York
Gus: Dallas
Sam: Dallas
~ ~
~ ~ ~
Molly:
Last week 5-7-2, currently 43-40-7
Terry: Last week 6-6-2, currently 43-40-7
Bob: Last week 3-9-2, currently 41-42-7
Gus: Last week 7-5-2 currently 39-44-7
Mike: Last week 8-4-2, currently 39-44-7
Sam: Last week 5-7-2, currently 34-49-7
Mike Jr: Last week 5-7-2, currently 32-37-7