I
had a plan. A theme of sorts in mind. See… to start this essay
off, I wanted to launch into a deeply detailed investigation about
how Rex Ryan was right. It did come down to coaching last week
between the Jets and Patriots. And, just as he hoped, his group
was better.
I
had all sorts of items ready to go and worthy of investigation…
none of which stood on their own as impressive or conclusive,
since the game really didn’t have much amazing coaching as it
developed. Alot of the great coaching was in the New York preparation.
But as a group of ideas, they really asserted quite well that
the Jets made fewer mistakes and played a much more sound and
complete game.
The
concepts I was going to focus on included how often the Jets scored
after driving a short field, and ideas about the fake punt and
onside kick. I mean, seriously, look…
I
am not against faking a punt. Not at all. But there are certain
moments where football is absolutely situational and not conditional.
For instance…
I
say that the fake punt was the wrong call at that time. Neither
offense had been particularly effective in the first half. New
England was set to get the ball to start the second half. And
when the fake failed… New York was given a short field, scored
a touchdown, and left the Patriots two scores down heading off
the field at half time.
Sure…
I also understand the two-fold argument in return, based on what
we have been told about the whole situation: Part one – Some of
the effectiveness of faking the punt comes from running the play
exactly when it is completely unexpected. Part two – The unit
had been coached to look for a certain set of conditions to exist.
If they did, one player was supposed to run the play. In summary,
it was an unexpected moment where the supposed conditions were
in place. Call for the fake is automatic.
Thing
is… I don’t agree with that argument. It’s one of the reasons
I want to combine my thought with the onside kick to build a stronger
case. Because the timing of it was just way, way off. And a team
that has been burned by the halftime possession game before should
be vaguely aware of its power. (Think back to that amazing Indianapolis
comeback against New England in their Super Bowl run that involved
having possession right after the half.)
We
can go back and forth on all the factors. The end result is simple
though… New England was outplayed. Whether because the Jets played
outstanding defense or because the Patriots were laughably horrendous
on offense or because of a coaching decision or a fake punt debate…
it doesn’t matter.
The
game gives you situations and you either act upon them or you
don’t.
I’m
not impressed by the Jets, in part thanks to the number of short-field
opportunities they were given. And yet, while I can point to New
York never needing long drives to win… and man, did I want to
do just that… it doesn’t matter. In the end… irrelevant… scoreboard…
the Jets did what they had to do. The Jets are playing this week.
You
don’t need me to examine what happened. These games can turn on
a fumble or blocked punt, they can be decided by an unstoppable
quarterback or a relentless defense. And all we can do is offer
some predictions and thoughts.
Which
brings us to this week’s games. Enough about last week… what happens
next?
New
York (Jets) at Pittsburgh (3) – I really like
the Steelers in this game. I like that important players on the
Pittsburgh roster didn’t play when these clubs first met. I like
that Roethlisberger is a more sound quarterback overall, playing
on his home field… which is a field known for being one of the
worst in the league. I like that Pittsburgh’s strengths… primarily
defense… allow for them to challenge New York in ways neither
Indianapolis or New England could. What I don’t like when picking
Pittsburgh is New York can keep this a low-scoring game, and that
they also have the advantage on special teams. Pittsburgh will…
in my humble opinion… win or lose this game by their ability to
force New York to start their drives 70-plus yards from the end
zone. That means keeping kick and punt returns short. That means
limiting turnovers. The difference between New York starting 50-60
yards away and 70-80 yards away? That’s the difference between
a field goal and a touchdown on a successful drive. And, in Pittsburgh…
where field goals are often not successful from lengths over 40-yards…
that yardage earned on special teams could easily be the difference
between the Jets scoring and not scoring.
Bob: Pittsburgh (both with and without the spread)
Terry: New York (both with and without the spread)
Mike: New York (both with and without the spread)
Mike Jr: Pittsburgh (both with and without the spread)
Molly: New York (with spread) and Pittsburgh (without spread)
Gus: New York (both with and without the spread)
Green
Bay (3) at Chicago
– I don’t think either of these clubs will look as impressive
this week as they did last week. Too much going on defensively
to believe either club will clear 30-points or score with ease.
Instead I think the game will be decided by Green Bay’s defense
against Jay Cutler. See… I don’t trust the Bears to be able to
do something if they have to do it. For instance, it’s in the
fourth quarter, Chicago down by 4-points, and Cutler has to drive
75-plus yards for a touchdown… or, since this could very easily
be a game where the teams combine for less than 35 scored, protecting
the football and not turning it over could be of ridiculously
monumental importance… or, if in the middle of a play, Cutler’s
response (throw it away instead of taking a sack, not completing
a pass in the middle of the field) determines their fate. In short…
I don’t see the Bears coming from behind to win it… and I don’t
believe in the Bears if Cutler has to win the game.
Bob: Green Bay (both with and without the spread)
Terry: Chicago (both with and without the spread)
Mike: Green Bay (both with and without the spread)
Mike Jr: Green Bay (both with and without the spread)
Molly: Chicago (both with and without the spread)
Gus: Green Bay (both with and without the spread)
~ ~
~ ~ ~
With
spread –
Bob: Last week 3-1, overall 5-3
Mike: Last week 2-2, overall 4-4
Mike Jr: Last week 1-3, overall 4-4
Gus: Last week 3-1, overall 4-4
Terry: Last week 1-3, overall 3-5
Molly: Last week 2-2, overall 3-5
Without
spread –
Gus: Last week 3-1, overall 6-2
Molly: Last week 4-0, overall 5-3
Mike: Last week 3-1, overall 5-3
Bob: Last week 3-1, overall 5-3
Mike Jr: last week 2-2, overall 4-4
Terry: Last week 1-3, overall 3-5