Here
at the Backpack, we approach the playoffs in two ways… beginning
to end, and against the spread. Plus, since we pick beginning
to end without the spread, we also toss in a third set of picks,
looking at each game every week without the spread as well.
If
you want to see our full predictions, you can check out the 2010
NFL playoff Overview. Starting with this column,
we’ll be posting our weekly picks all the way to the Super Bowl,
with and without the spread involved.
I’ve
got nothing to add here that doesn’t deserve to instead be in
with the games, so let’s get to it…
New
York (Jets) at Indianapolis (3)
~ Let’s get two things straight… the Colts are not a pushover
at home. 6-2 on the year. And… the Jets do not have a quarterback
that has proven himself in big games when the Jets are favored
or expected to compete. Sure… the Jets will tell you they aren’t
afraid and like their chances. I don’t. I expect their defense
to give up points. And, frankly, without a proven leader on offense,
I think even the weak Colt defense might be able to slow them
down enough that it matters. And that’s really all I have to offer
here.
Bob: Indianapolis (both with and without spread)
Terry: New York (both with and without spread)
Mike: Indianapolis (both with and without spread)
Mike Jr: New York (with spread) and Indianapolis (without spread)
Molly: Indianapolis (both with and without spread)
Gus: Indianapolis (with spread) and New York (without spread)
Baltimore
(3) at Kansas City
~ The problem for the Chiefs is that their good defense is nothing
special in the playoffs. The team has given up 326 points this
season. Pretty good. San Diego gave up less… and San Diego is
at home. But no one in the AFC South gave up less. Cleveland…
Cincinnati… Miami… Buffalo… all gave up more. The problem is…
other than the Chargers, the four AFC teams that did give up less
are in the playoffs. That would be New England, New York, Baltimore
and Pittsburgh. So right off the bat, a ball-control, make few
mistakes, but hardly explosive offense is in a bit of trouble.
Because, simply put, the Chiefs are far from likely to win this
game running away. Where they have a chance is simple… score first,
try to get up by 10 or more, and then bleed that clock as quickly
as possible. Unfortunately I think the Ravens have too much. And
by that I mean simply… too much Ray Rice. I expect the Ravens
to strike first and then coast to a nice 9 or 10 point win.
Bob: Baltimore (both with and without spread)
Terry: Kansas City (both with and without spread)
Mike: Baltimore (both with and without spread)
Mike Jr: Baltimore (both with and without spread)
Molly: Kansas City (both with and without spread)
Gus: Kansas City (both with and without spread)
Green
Bay and Philadelphia (2½)
~ In the overview I noted that Seattle and Indianapolis are the
only two teams that have given up more points than Philadelphia.
Alot of people want to give the Eagles credit for dismantling
the Redskins and then for the comeback victory over the Giants.
Personally, I think they get too much credit for that. Why? Well…
just two games ago, Minnesota came in and made the Eagles look
silly. And I think the New York game was an embarrassing collapse.
28 points in 8 minutes? With the mistakes the Giants made? Please.
The point is… the stats say Philly can score… and the record going
game-by-game has some examples where that is quite true. But it
also says they are average at home (4-4 on the year), have the
worst record of NFC teams against conference opponents of the
playoff teams (oh yeah, except Seattle), and in the past three
weeks they’ve played just 8 good minutes of football.
Bob: Green Bay (both with and without spread)
Terry: Philadelphia (both with and without spread)
Mike: Green Bay (both with and without spread)
Mike Jr: Green Bay (both with and without spread)
Molly: Green Bay (both with and without spread)
Gus: Philadelphia (with spread) and Green Bay (without spread)
New
Orleans (10½) at Seattle
~ One of the lower scoring teams in football with one of the worst
defenses is hosting the defending champions. I can’t make a case
for taking the Seahawks in any way, shape or form. About the only
thing that makes sense to me is trying to argue that once they
get up by 24 to 27 points, the Saints pull back and rest for next
week, allowing a couple of late scores. But the Seahawks don’t
have an offense capable of doing that.
Bob: New Orleans (both with and without spread)
Terry: Seattle (both with and without spread)
Mike: Seattle (with spread) and New Orleans (without spread)
Mike Jr: Seattle (with spread) and New Orleans (without spread)
Molly: New Orleans (both with and without spread)
Gus: Seattle (both with and without spread)