Something
amazing happened last week… and I want to give credit because
of it.
The
Dogs leveled us.
I
don’t mean they did really well. I mean they destroyed
us… nailing winners like New Orleans and Buffalo when all of us
missed on those games. And… if Houston could learn how to hold
a three-score lead… if Matt Ryan could play with a bad toe… there’s
a good shot the Dogs would have turned in a 15-win week.
They
started out perfect on Thanksgiving. Then that 3-0 mark was added
to with a 5-2 record during the 1pm games on Sunday… where they
lost by picking Houston and Atlanta. 8-2 was their record when
the 4pm games were underway, and the only really disgraceful loss
for them for the week became Jay Cutler and the Bears from that
set of games. Heading in to Sunday night they were a solid 11-3,
and they added to it with Baltimore and New Orleans winning the
last two contests.
So
the Dogs now sit at 86-88-2 on the season, and they can definitely
see the three leaders just ahead of them. Another week like that
and we may see them win this thing yet. (And by the way… history
shows Mike and I being unsteady during the final weeks of the
year over the last couple of seasons. We’ve had great weeks, and
we’ve had bad weeks. So picking based on snacks may be about as
good an approach as there is.)
Dad
continued his roll. 8-8 may not seem impressive… but count it
as part of his entire season. With a slow and steady pace week
after week, never winning big but never losing much either, he
has managed to create a solid record… and he takes back the top
spot for now.
I’m
not going to be able to provide a tone of research this week.
I’ve got a few things that I’ve noticed… and some things I want
to mention. But when you’re facing a decision about Carolina hosting
Tampa Bay… and the Panthers are ending the week leading up to
the game believing that they may have to call the local elementary
school for a quarterback and some running backs, because everyone
on their roster may be out… and the Panthers are still favored
by roughly a touchdown… well, good luck with your research.
This
week we take a look at a quote machine of a movie… so great that
I will use one of the earliest quotes from the movie to wrap it
up, because that’s one of the most subtle yet brilliant quotes
to be found in the movie Stripes.
New
York (Jets) (3) at Buffalo (In Toronto)
– “Oh, it’s not the speed really
so much, I just wish I hadn’t drunk all that cough syrup this
morning.” Ok… first off… this game isn’t being
played in the United States. This is part of Buffalo’s attempt
to move without moving, and will be played in Toronto. So… sure…
it’s more of a home game than London, but it remains to be seen
if Toronto will provide a true home game. That out of the way,
it’s very hard to get a grip on this contest. The Jets were leveled
by New England two weeks ago, but other than that have looked
interesting lately. The second loss to Miami… at home… was a strange
game since Miami scored 21 points without putting the offense
on the field and then won by 5. (The Jets turned in some decent
play to make it competitive.) The loss to Jacksonville hurt, but
that was by 2. (And while I don’t think much of the Jaguars, they
are winning more than they’re losing, and are in the playoff picture.
(For now.)) They defeated Carolina and Oakland. That shows a taking
care of business mentality because you have to beat Carolina and
Oakland. So… five games… three bad losses… but really, just one
loss where they were outclassed. Ahh… but go back six games and
we arrive at the first game between these two clubs, and for the
Jets, that was just awful. And it was awful in a way that shows
this club has a long way to go. It was so awful that Sanchez threw
5 interceptions… meaning that even with over 200 rushing yards
for Thomas Jones, they still lost 16-13. (Are you still with me?
I wouldn’t blame you if you moved on to Denver at Kansas City…
because this one is rough stuff. We’ve got a team that is playing
pretty solid defense overall, started the season off looking like
a surprise playoff possibility, and in recent weeks has looked
every bit like the team with the rookie quarterback. So when they
face a divisional opponent that defeated them, but needed 6 turnovers
to accomplish that in overtime while allowing a running back to
dance all over them… come on… how do you research that? How do
you make a sound decision about what’s going to happen? Well…
here’s one way…) Since jettisoning their head coach, Buffalo lost
a road game against Jacksonville where the Jaguars had to score
late to win it… they smashed Miami 31-14, coming from 14-7 down
to put up 24 points in the fourth quarter to win… and we had a
Terrell Owens sighting, with him going 98-yards for the longest
touchdown reception of his career. There are reasons to think
the Bills could win this one. But in the end, I don’t see Sanchez
being allowed to throw 5 interceptions in this game. (And I mean
that literally… if he gets picked off 4 times, they’ll yank him
or run the ball for the rest of the game.) So when you take a
team that has given up the least amount of points in their division
(the Jets), put them against a club that is being outscored by
an average of 6-points per game (the Bills), and play the game
on a potentially neutral field (Toronto), I think you have to
take the better defense that goes with the club actually outscoring
their opponents.
Bob: New York
Terry: Buffalo
Dad: New York
Mike: New York
Molly: New York
Denver
(4) at Kansas City – “Tito
Puente’s gonna be dead, and you’re gonna say, ‘Oh, I’ve been listening
to him for years, and I think he’s fabulous.’”
Last week I watched the Denver team I saw early in the year… solid
on defense, with a reliable offense. Steady for most of the game,
while letting the other team make the mistakes and get frustrated.
It was the first time I’d seen that from them in weeks. The funny
thing is, a few weeks ago I predicted struggles for the Broncos,
and also that I thought they could recover from those struggles
because of the way they were winning at that time (low turnovers,
keeping the opponents from scoring). So I’ll go with Denver here…
to keep winning and make a run at the playoffs.
Bob: Denver
Terry: Denver
Dad: Denver
Mike: Denver
Gus: Kansas City
Oakland
at Pittsburgh (14½) – “I’ve
had an interesting morning. In the last two hours I’ve lost my
job, my apartment, my car, and my girlfriend.” “You still have
your health.” (And where was Russell coming from
when he arrived at this meeting with John? Well… our first bonus
quote…) “Okay, I know you’re anxious
to jump right in and start speaking English, but there’s a couple
of things I need to know first… because I’ve never done this before.
So, how many of you would say you speak English fairly well, but
with some difficulties? A little English? Yes? You speak some
English?” “Son of bitch. Sh*t.” “Son of bitch. Sh*t.”
This game is a brutal one to look at. Pittsburgh is coming off
of a tough loss two weeks ago, and last week’s game (against the
Ravens) has raised all sorts of questions about the team. (Their
locker room must be a thrilling, happy place these days.) I would
expect them to be looking for someone to take the brunt of massive
frustrations, but seriously wonder what Roethlisberger or any
other quarterback will be able to accomplish here. In other words…
Pittsburgh should win handily, but is two-plus touchdowns too
handily for what has become a shaky team? Enter the Raiders, a
club that still hasn’t scored more than 20 in a game. Funny item
about the Raiders and the road… you know I hate using divisional
games for research, so let’s place the San Diego game (where they
scored 16), and the Kansas City game (13), and… sit down, this
is a good one… the Raiders haven’t scored more than 7 in any of
the other 3 road games. As if 16 and 13 weren’t bad enough, most
of the time they really suck. On the road, they average 11 points
per game… and give up about 27. I’m expecting nothing from Oakland
here. This is one of those contests where after it’s over, people
start telling you the Steelers have their groove back.
Bob: Pittsburgh
Terry: Pittsburgh
Dad: Pittsburgh
Mike: Pittsburgh
Molly: Oakland
Houston
at Jacksonville (pick) – “It’s
a standard question we have to ask.” “No, we’re not homosexual.
But we are willing to learn.” “Yeah, would they send us someplace
special?” I hate the Houston Texans. No… no… I
loathe the Houston Texans. They are an organization that
simply does not want to be consistent. Now loathe is really far
too strong a word, but it gives you an image of the troubles I
face when dealing with them. Over the years I’ve considered them
to be a team worth watching. But as soon as I believe they’ll
win because they are the better team... they lose. And when I
expect them to crash and burn because the opponent seems to have
all of the advantages… they win. The trick is… when I hesitate…
torn between will they or won’t they… then once again, they lose.
And that’s where the problem is, because here… I’m torn. They
were 5-3 and not too bad for setting up a playoff run. Tennessee
on the schedule along with St. Louis. Seattle… a team that can’t
successfully plan travel for a vacation, never mind a football
game… was set to visit them. They should have been looking at
easily getting to eight wins, with 5 other games to play. Of course,
since those glorious 5-3 days, they’ve lost 3 times. Now many
of you would point and claim there is no shame in any of those
losses. 2 to Indy and 1 to a surging Tennessee club. It happens.
And if you’re pointing in hindsight, then I disagree with you.
Because how they lost is shameful. Last week they were destroying
the Colts… and they lost. The week before they scored first against
the Titans, were tied at halftime, and simply did squat in the
third and fourth quarters. Both games were at home. And the week
before… the first loss of this string… a last-second field goal
attempt to tie the game was missed. (It was a 42-yard attempt…
not a given… but should have been made.) So here we are… with
Houston traveling to Jacksonville… and the Jaguars are a mess
as well. 6-5… sure… but they just got pasted by the 49ers, and
they are one of the biggest fakes in the league. This is not a
playoff-bound club. Houston struggling… Jacksonville simply untrustworthy…
you can see why this is a shaky place to be. Here’s some history
for you… these clubs have split their games the past two full
seasons, with Jacksonville winning the first contest this year.
Jacksonville has lost every game they’ve played against a decent
team this season. Against my better judgment… give me Houston.
Bob: Houston
Terry: Houston
Dad: Houston
Mike: Houston
Gus: Jacksonville
Tennessee
at Indianapolis (7)
– “How’s it going, Eisenhower?”
I’m telling you… the Colts are not the best team in the AFC. They’re
the luckiest. Now granted… good teams tend to get lucky more than
bad teams. And Manning is turning in some stellar performances.
We’ll see what the Titans are made of this week… because the fairy
tale ends with their next loss. I’m willing to take Chris Johnson
for now… but eventually I may have to admit that pissing away
a win every week just to stand my ground against Indy isn’t paying
off. (By the way… this season, Indy is 2-2 against spreads of
more than 7-points. The two wins? They played in St. Louis and
defeated the Rams… and the horrendous-on-the-road Seahawks ventured
away from Seattle to get spanked.)
Bob: Tennessee
Terry: Tennessee
Dad: Indianapolis
Mike: Indianapolis
Molly: Tennessee
Philadelphia
(5½) at Atlanta
– “I’ve always been kind of a pacifist.
When I was a kid, my father told me, ‘Never hit anyone in anger,
unless you’re absolutely sure you can get away with it.’ I don’t
know what kind of soldier I’m gonna make, but I want you guys
to know that if we ever get into really heavy combat… I’ll be
right behind you guys. Every step of the way.”
So let’s see… Philly struggled against the Bears in a game where
Cutler couldn’t have hit the side of a barn if he was standing
inside the barn, and then they almost got knocked off by a feisty
Washington team. There’s a confidence builder for you. Atlanta
is banged up… Matt Ryan not playing has been the story of the
week so far… but I’m going to take the Falcons anyway. Why? Because
the Eagles have not traveled well this year.
Bob: Atlanta
Terry: Atlanta
Dad: Philadelphia
Mike: Atlanta
Gus: Atlanta
Detroit
at Cincinnati (13)
– “Well, my name’s Dewey Oxburger.
My friends call me Ox. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but I got
a slight weight problem.” (Bonus quote… bonus
quote from the friendly, group exchange get together with Sergeant
Hulka…) “I’m gonna go out on a limb
here. I’m gonna volunteer my leadership to this platoon. An army
without leaders is like a foot without a big toe. And Sergeant
Hulka isn’t always gonna be here to be that big toe for us.”
I hate to cut some of these short… but some of these are based
on a quick, gut instinct kind of pick for me this week… and there
is just no way the Bengals are covering a large spread. It’s not
happening. They’ve won 8 games on the year, and only the Bears
was by more than 11 points.
Bob: Detroit
Terry: Detroit
Dad: Cincinnati
Mike: Cincinnati
Molly: Detroit
New
Orleans (9½) at Washington
– “We got a full day ahead of us.
We’re gonna start out with a five-mile run.” “I know that I’m
speaking for the entire platoon when I say this run should be
postponed until this platoon is better rested.” “Well, I’ll tell
you what, soldier. Let’s make it ten miles.” In
the past 3 weeks the Redskins have toppled the Broncos and scared
the crap out of the Cowboys and Eagles. And for all of their faults,
only 4 times this year has an opponent hit the 21-point mark.
Coming off of arguably the greatest win in organization history…
I think New Orleans wins, and probably big, but I’m going to take
Washington for the surprise (and the points).
Bob: Washington
Terry: Washington
Dad: New Orleans
Mike: New Orleans
Gus: Washington
Tampa
Bay at Carolina (6½)
– “Soldier, I’ve noticed that you’re
always last.” “I’m pacing myself Sergeant.” Carolina
is favored by a touchdown and as of this time, considers every
offensive player behind the center a game-time decision. I’m not
kidding. Quarterback? Don’t know. Running back? Don’t know. I
do know the Bucs have been playing much better in recent weeks.
Bob: Tampa Bay
Terry: Tampa Bay
Dad: Tampa Bay
Mike: Carolina
Molly: Carolina
St.
Louis at Chicago (9)
– “I wish I was a loofah.”
The Bears have lost four in a row and looked miserable doing it.
Perhaps they’re due to explode… but I don’t expect it. (By the
way… last year… week 12… in St. Louis… the Bears win 27-3. Worth
noting. Of course, that was a Bears team with a real quarterback…
Kyle Orton.) A more important note… I have heard Stephen Jackson
is fighting a sore back. (I’ll still take the Rams.)
Bob: St. Louis
Terry: St. Louis
Dad: Chicago
Mike: Chicago
Gus: Chicago
San
Diego (12½) at Cleveland
– “You listen to me! You’re gonna
finish basic training! You’re gonna keep your mouth shut! And
you’re gonna do everything he tells you! You know why?” “Why?”
“Because you talked me into this, you idiot! It was your idea!”
So, this week I’ve got several chances on the
line… probably shouldn’t be tempting fate against Indianapolis
and New Orleans by betting against the points… and I’m step-for-step
with Terry other than the week’s opening game. Until now. There
is nothing to leave to chance here. The Chargers should pound
the Browns.
Bob: San Diego
Terry: Cleveland
Dad: San Diego
Mike: San Diego
Molly: San Diego
San
Francisco at Seattle (pick)
– “All right, soldier, let’s see
how you fire that mortar.” “What coordinates, sir?” “Coordinates?”
“Yes, sir, they determine where the mortar’s…” “Soldier, the army
has spent a lot of money teaching you to fire that thing. Now
set it… and… fire it.” “Sir, we don’t know where the shell’s gonna…”
“Soldier. The only way to learn anything is to do it. Now fire
the weapon.” You want more research? Ok. Last
week, Seattle won for the first time this season on the road.
(I know… they’re playing at home… stay with me.) They defeated
St. Louis in that game. Against all the others when they travel,
they just rolled over and lost. Read: we’re not dealing with a
quality team. So now we have this game at home, where that not-a-quality-team
has a list of victories over powerhouses… St. Louis, Jacksonville,
and Detroit. My point is… at home or on the road… the Seahawks
are not a good club, and in addition to playing lousy on the road,
they don’t put up much of a fight at home. The 49ers come into
this game at 5-6, and they actually still have a shot at the postseason.
But this is a game they simply must win. They could probably afford
one more loss… but with Arizona and Philly coming up, you can’t
trip against Seattle and get to 9 or 10 wins. The 49ers are only
1-4 on the road this year… but remember that thrilling game against
Minnesota? So yeah… it’s not like they’ve played poorly on the
road. Alex Smith has been throwing the ball a bit more… but I’d
like to see a bit more yardage for the efforts. Other than that,
San Francisco is the better team here.
Bob: San Francisco
Terry: San Francisco
Dad: San Francisco
Mike: Seattle
Gus: San Francisco
Minnesota
(5) at Arizona
– “Who saw Old Yeller?
Who cried when Old Yeller got shot at the end? Nobody
cried when Old Yeller got shot? I’m sure.” (Which
leads us to this bonus quote…) “Where
is your drill sergeant, men?” “Blown up, sir!”
(Which of course, deserves this bonus quote…) “Are
you telling me that you men finished your training on your own?”
“That’s the fact, Jack.” Kurt Warner is still
dizzy… and the Vikings are running on cruise control to a bye
week and one of the top two seeds in the NFC. I am not looking
up a thing.
Bob: Minnesota
Terry: Arizona
Dad: Minnesota
Mike: Minnesota
Molly: Minnesota
Dallas
(2½) at New York (Giants)
– “Come on. Let’s take the truck.”
“No.” “Yes.” “No.” “Yes.” “No.” “Yes.” “No.” “I’ll drive.” “Okay.”
A quick look at things would hint at a Dallas team playing well…
winning 5 of their last 6. But get this… 4 of the 6 have been
at home, and that includes the recent struggles against Washington.
And yet… they did travel to defeat Philly in an important divisional
game. Both of these teams have had extra time off following Thanksgiving
day games (which the Giants must be thankful for). See… New York
has lost 5 of the last 6. And even in the win it took them overtime
to get there. This game will make or break New York’s season…
simple as that. If I asked you… and you didn’t know the standings…
I know you wouldn’t believe they’re 6-5. But they are. The string
of games they face is Dallas, Philadelphia, at Washington and
Carolina, before ending the year with a trip to Minnesota. Win
this game… and I would believe 10-5 before facing the Vikings.
But the reality is… New York has not played well against good
teams, especially since whispers have surfaced about Eli’s health.
And while Dallas isn’t a great team, they are a good team.
Bob: Dallas
Terry: New York
Dad: New York
Mike: Dallas
Gus: Dallas
New
England (5) at Miami –
“Where… where’s… my… truck? Hey, where’s
the EM-50?” “A couple of soldiers took it to get it washed sir.”
The Patriots haven’t lost two straight games since November 5th
and 12th in 2006. (Before that, go to 2002.) This season, after
losses they’ve won the next week by 16, 59, and 17. Bet on New
England. It’s probably about as safe as you will see this week.
Bob: New England
Terry: Miami
Dad: New England
Mike: New England
Molly: New England
Baltimore
at Green Bay (3)
– “And then depression set in.”
Green Bay has hit a nice roll lately, and looks good. 3 straight
wins… over Dallas, San Francisco, and then Detroit. And even the
win over the Lions was impressive… short week, and they pretty
much cruised from beginning to end, never challenged or concerned.
I have to admit… at 4-4 I figured they were set to struggle, but
they have instead flourished. The Ravens have been the exact opposite.
They had Indy defeated… more or less… until amazingly stupid play
at the very end of the game thwarted them. They registered a good
win last week over the Steelers… but needed overtime to defeat
a Pittsburgh team being led by their third-string quarterback.
They show enough to make you respect them… and then toss it all
away. The Ravens are competitive on the road. They don’t have
a winning record… but the losses are against quality (New England,
Minnesota, Cincinnati). I think Ray rice becomes the best player
on the field… and when in doubt, that’s the first place I look.
Bob: Baltimore
Terry: Baltimore
Dad: Green Bay
Mike: Baltimore
Gus: Baltimore
~ ~
~ ~ ~
Dad
– Last week 8-8, season 93-81-2
Bob – Last week 6-10, season 92-82-2
Mike – Last week 5-11, season 91-83-2
The Dogs – Last week 13-3, season 86-88-2
Terry – Last week 11-5, season 74-100-2
Molly:
Last week 7-1, season 46-41-1
Gus: Last week 6-2, season 40-47-1