***
This article was updated on Saturday, October 17, 2009. Dad wanted
to change his pick for the Tennessee - New England game, and Mike
sent his picks over for the week. ***
~ ~
~ ~ ~
I
told you last week was going to suck. I did. I told you.
And
if you watched the Cleveland – Buffalo game, you know it sucked.
(Although… to be fair, no one could possibly have been watching
it. No one. And I actually picked Cleveland in that game, as did
Gus.)
But
let’s return some focus to the lessons we learned… or may have
learned. Think about this…
Four
teams were favored by 10 or more points… all of them won the game,
and only Pittsburgh couldn’t covert covering the spread (against
Detroit).
In
seven games with lower spreads… 6-point spread or less, with no
line for Jacksonville – Seattle so I’m not counting that one…
the underdogs went 5-2, with Washington as the only gambling winner
that lost the game. That means 4 of 7 underdogs won the games
outright.
And
why should you care? Well… get this…
Over
the first five weeks of the season, there have been 20 games with
a spread of 8-points or more. Favorites have won 70% of those
games. Heck… at home these clubs are 11-3! Think about that for
a moment… teams this season that have been favored by 8 or more
points are .500 on the road (3-3), but put them at home and they
are winning at an astounding .785 rate (11-3). In fact, let me
separate that thought…
At
home this season, teams favored by 8 or more points are both winning
and covering the spread almost 80% of the time.
How
does that match up overall? Well… favorites overall are 39-36-1
this season. And… simple math people… if the huge favorite are
+8 on the season, and overall favorites are +3 on the season…
yeah, then in any game with a spread of less than 8-points the
record favors the underdogs. (39-36-1 overall… 25-30-1 record
for favorites when spread less than 8-points)
In
other words… there are times when it helps to forget the stinking
spread. That’s why it is so heavily involved in my first impressions
when looking things over. And there are times when some obvious
things should be considered… a huge, big, heavy favorite playing
at home. But otherwise, best wishes. Homework time. (And if you
don’t believe me, then show me the person that correctly picked
Cleveland – Buffalo and New England – Denver last week, while
expecting Kansas City and Detroit to cover. Heck, even Gus split
on those first two games, and he picked Cleveland.)
I
am very inclined to take every favorite over 10 points this week,
and every underdog below that. Especially since picking against
Oakland is involved. We’ll see. I doubt it. Especially since I
don’t think Green Bay is going to walk over Detroit. But it is
definitely worth considering. And why is it worth considering
and not just doing? Well...
This
week another amazing trend hits us… the home favorite. In weeks
one and two we had some overwhelming love for the home team… with
four road teams being favored in the sixteen games. This week
though… stunning… only two road teams are favorites.
Two.
Good
luck folks. Enjoy.
The
quote of the week… Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.
(Oh yeah… pulling out the major classics here.)
(Mike’s
picks weren’t here in time for the posting. Once I get them, I’ll
update accordingly.)
Kansas
City at Washington (6½)
– “You just keep thinkin’ Butch.
That’s what you’re good at.” I’m beginning to
think no one with a hand in setting gambling spreads is watching
Washington play. I mean, sure, they covered last week… in a loss
on the road against Carolina. And, they choked in that game. Had
a two-score lead. Choked. On the other side of the field this
week will be a team that isn’t winning games, but hey… the Chiefs
have been scoring some points and making it interesting. So… yeah…
of course… let’s favor the Redskins by a touchdown or so. Sorry…
not a chance. I don’t see it. (By the way… amazing side stat.
Are you ready? Ok… Washington has yet to face a team with a victory
this season. Ok, sure, some teams have beaten them and left with
a victory. And, the Giants were 0-0 in week one. Got it. But New
York… St. Louis… Detroit… Tampa Bay… Carolina. Not one of them
had a victory in 2009 when the team took the field to face Washington.
And as of today, even including those that defeated the Redskins,
only the Giants have victories over another team. St. Louis and
Tampa still haven’t won. Detroit and Carolina haven’t beaten anyone
else. Heck, the Panthers were losing by 15 at one point before
rallying for their victory. And yet this… this is the team favored
by 6½? Washington has scored 73 points this year. Kansas
City? 84. I’m not saying it can’t happen. Kansas City has been
bad after bad after bad recently at a level that is historic,
somewhat hidden by such facts and incidentals as they haven’t
lost every game in a season the way Detroit did. It just makes
no sense to say Washington thumping them will happen. Not when
the Redskins have a losing record and scoring problems against
these losing teams.)
Bob: Kansas City
Terry: Washington
Dad: Washington
Mike: Kansas City
Molly: KansasCity
Houston
at Cincinnati (4½) – “I
couldn’t do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are
those guys?” How are the Bengals doing so well
this year? What’s the difference? Take back just a few seconds
from week one and this team is dominating the AFC… not just their
division. Basically it’s happening because someone showed Cedric
Benson how to run the football. (If he had done this in Chicago,
he wouldn’t be in Cincinnati). Obviously that’s not the only thing…
the defense has been playing well, and the rest of the offense
is fairly balanced. It’s not one thing… it’s every-thing… and
the question is simply whether or not it can continue. Houston
arrives with a 2-3 record and not much to go on. They’ve split
on the road… beating Tennessee (which seemed impressive at the
time, but it turns out is something everyone is doing) and losing
to Arizona (which, you know, is kind of a vanilla thing to do).
About the only thing we do know is that after a simply horrific
week one outing, they’ve scored at least 24 points in every game.
This is a very interesting game for the Texans because after this
they get San Francisco at home before traveling to Buffalo and
Indianapolis. In other words, a win here and they could be sitting
around .500 at their bye week… a loss and the season could unravel
into what-might-have-been. (What-might-have-been referring to
maybe 8 or 9 wins. Not the playoffs.) The Bengals have won three
games in a row… and each victory by 3 points. Amazingly, at home
they stand at 1-1 on the year. I mean… you have to favor the Bengals…
but geez there’s just so little to use in supporting it. Not running
away in victories… nothing dominant at home. So I’ll take Houston
based on three factors… (1) The theme of the week, underdogs within
8 have a winning record on the year. (2) I would expect Cincinnati
to win, and Houston wins games when you – or perhaps should I
say at least when I – don’t expect them to have a shot. (3) I
can’t say Houston has been brilliant on defense… as a team giving
up an average of 24 points per game to the opposition… but I honestly
think they could slow down the passing attack of Cincy and focus
on Benson. Remember… look things over… other than against Green
Bay, the Cincinnati offense isn’t putting the ball into the end
zone with great efficiency. And even when you’re scoring, eventually
if you’re putting 3 on the board instead of 7 multiple times every
game, it catches up with you.
Bob: Houston
Terry: Houston
Dad: Cincinnati
Mike: Cincinnati
Gus: Houston
Cleveland
at Pittsburgh (14)
– “Boy, I got vision, and the rest
of the world wears bifocals.” There are a few
games I could have placed this quote with, but this one seems
right. Cleveland was good to me last week… winning a miserable
game against Buffalo. And I’m always good for pointing out that
Pittsburgh in recent years crushes the opposition at home. I’ll
credit that to vision. Now… the Steelers haven’t been helping
me much this season. Games have been closer than I’d like. But
I told you how those big favorites do at home… and I think Pittsburgh
is going to have a huge game this week.
Bob: Pittsburgh
Terry: Cleveland
Dad: Pittsburgh
Mike: Pittsburgh
Molly: Pittsburgh
Baltimore
at Minnesota (2½)
– “Is that what you call giving
cover?” “Is that what you call running?” This
game scares me a bit. Baltimore has lost two in a row, and should
be poised for take-out-our-frustration efforts. And on the Minnesota
side of the equation, they are: (1) undefeated, (2) coming off
an emotional victory over Green Bay and an efficient dismantling
of St. Louis, and, (3) have travel plans for Pittsburgh and Green
Bay lined up for the weeks that follow (so they could be distracted).
That said… Baltimore had trouble stopping Cincinnati from running
last week. I expect that to be even more difficult for them this
week. And, Favre is still having fun, looking sort of fresh and
rested, and not being tested much. Spread is too small to think
about anything except a winner… and that should be the Vikings.
Bob: Minnesota
Terry: Baltimore
Dad: Minnesota
Mike: Minnesota
Gus: Minnesota
St.
Louis at Jacksonville (10)
– “How many are following us?” “All
of ‘em.” “All of ‘em. What’s the matter with those guys?”
How can you bet on a team that isn’t scoring 7-points a game?
How? You can’t. And that’s why so many people will be following
the Jaguars this week. The Rams are bad at a level that simply
can’t be described. There’s a real chance they could stay at home
this year, forfeit the road games, and not only would the 0-8
record be pretty much what they’ll have anyway, but they might
only score like 17 fewer total points on the year than they will
by showing up. (Seriously, they should consider it, save the planet
and not travel at all.)
Bob: Jacksonville
Terry: Jacksonville
Dad: St. Louis
Mike: Jacksonville
Molly: St. Louis
Carolina
(3½) at Tampa Bay – “Well,
looks like you just about cleaned everybody out, fella. You haven’t
lost a hand since you got to deal. What’s the secret of your success?”
“Prayer.” Ok… follow me on this one. Last week
the 0-3 Carolina Panthers went to halftime trailing 10-2. After
a touchdown put them down 17-2, the fun began. The Carolina offense
scored a touchdown and a field goal to bring them within 17-12.
And that’s when the Redskins botched a punt, the Panthers put
it in the end zone, and the game ultimately ends 20-17. Long story
short… 11 points in the fourth quarter to win the game… and the
output of 20 points tied their high score for the season. The
Panthers are not what you would consider as a tremendous threat
to run away with this one. Tampa’s season is even harder to gauge
though. They’ve changed quarterbacks, so who knows what the offense
can do. Against the Redskins, they gave up all 16 of Washington’s
points in the third quarter and shut them down in the other three,
and giving up multiple scores in the same quarter to the opposition
seems to be a habit for them. (Would you believe Carolina has
scored 11 points less than Tampa on the year? Sure you would,
because they’ve played one less game. But Carolina is only putting
14+ on the board per game while Tampa is hitting 13+… it’s not
like there’s some major difference here.) End result… both of
these teams stink… both of these teams are inconsistent… and both
of these teams are longshots to run away for a lopsided victory.
This might be Tampa’s best shot at a victory for the entire season.
Bob: Tampa Bay
Terry: Tampa Bay
Dad: Carolina
Mike: Carolina
Gus: Carolina
New
York (Giants) at New Orleans (3)
– “I didn’t know you were the Sundance
Kid when I said you were cheating. If I draw on you, you’ll kill
me.” “There’s that possibility.” Very interesting
game, but I’m going to take the Saints. And really, the only reason
is because the Giants are a bit banged up and hitting the road,
while the Saints are rested coming off their bye week. I could
try making a case that the Saints really haven’t been challenged
yet this season because they have improved their defense. I could
also point out that with the Eagles and the Jets as opponents
so far, the Saints have beaten the two best clubs of all the opponent
these two teams have faced to date. (Or… do you want to argue
that the Giants knocking off the Cowboys was harder than one of
those two games? Didn’t think you would.) In four games the Saints
have won each by 14 or more. Two opponents were held to 10 points
or less, and when the other two cracked 20-points, the Saints
were over 40 and comfortable. For New York, they also come in
to this game sort of never challenged (Dallas was close)… but
they’ve never played a decent team either. Oh… don’t get me wrong…
the Giants are good. But when you’re tossing aside Tampa, Kansas
City and Oakland in weeks 3, 4 and 5… exactly how good can you
say you are? Big test for both teams… and this could eventually
be a game that separates the top two seeds in the playoffs. From
what I’ve seen so far, I have to take New Orleans.
Bob: New Orleans
Terry: New York
Dad: New Orleans
Mike: New Orleans
Molly: New Orleans
Detroit
at Green Bay (13½) – “You
can’t want to get blown up again.” “Butch, you know that if it
were my money, there is nobody that I would rather have steal
it than you. But, you see, I am still in the employment of E.
H. Harriman of Union Pacific Railroad.” In a way,
this game makes me quite nervous. Because everyone seems to want
Green Bay to be good… and yet every challenge placed before Green
Bay this year has been an opportunity for them to underachieve.
They’re 2-2 on the year, and St. Louis scored an amazing 17 points
against them. (Get this… in that game, the Packers scored 3 times
in the opening quarter, including on two turnovers. But each time
had to settle for a field goal. I mean… they really should have
put St. Louis away in under 15-minutes, but led only 9-0 heading
into the second quarter.) So we have losses to Minnesota and Cincinnati
for them, and two unimpressive wins if we’re being honest. Detroit
has played fairly well this year. But… and this is a big but…
they have not played well away from home. They lost to the Saints
by 18 and the Bears by 24. On the road so far they’ve been outscored
93 to 51. Yes… it’s been at home where they’ve played their best.
Pros and cons on both sides of the equation. So I think realistically,
the only way to decide this is to ask two questions. (1) Is the
Green Bay offense good enough to outscore Detroit by 14 points?
(The Green Bay offense… well… no. Not as a solid pick for it that
you should bet on. They’re averaging 26 points a game… which is
third in their division… hardly the stuff of impressive dominance.
We cannot say they are good enough to outscore Detroit by 14.
And so…) (2) Is the Green Bay defense good enough to shut down
the Detroit offense? (They’re giving up 23 points per game, opponents
have hit 30 points twice against them while they’ve only reached
that number once… and we could go on, but you get the point. We
cannot say their defense is good enough.)
Bob: Detroit
Terry: Green Bay
Dad: Green Bay
Mike: Detroit
Gus: Green Bay
Philadelphia
(14) at Oakland – “Do
you believe I’m broke already?” “Why is there never any money,
Butch?” “Well, I swear, Etta, I don’t know. I’ve been working
like a dog all my life and I can’t get a penny ahead.” “Sundance
says it’s because you’re a soft touch, and always taking expensive
vacations, and buying drinks for everyone, and you’re a rotten
gambler.” “Well that might have something to do with it.”
The theme of this week has been that big favorites win big, especially
at home. So, of course, we get to follow up my pick of a big road
underdog (Detroit) with a game where we have a big road favorite
over what may be the most hideous team in the league. Great. In
the past three games, the Raiders have been outscored by 80 points.
In the last four games their top scoring output was 10 points…
and that was in the first of these last four games. They’re coaching
staff is a mess, and currently the head coach is under an increasingly
significant police investigation. Their offense can’t run or pass.
(I’m not kidding. They are so bad passing that defenses are concentrating
on shutting down the run and not even bothering with the passing
game. The Raiders are even worse than a couple of years ago, when
Houston’s offensive coordinator seemed to game plan every possession
the same way: (1) Run three plays. (2) Punt. (3) If you get the
ball back, repeat. If Oakland had any special teams talent worthy
of the thought, I’d suggest punting on first down and hoping for
a return of an interception as their best offensive plan.) Their
defense… well… does it really matter?
Bob: Philadelphia
Terry: Philadelphia
Dad: Philadelphia
Mike: Philadelphia
Molly: Oakland
Arizona
at Seattle (2½) – “It’s
your great ideas that got us into this mess. I never want to hear
another one of your great ideas. Ever!” “Australia. I thought
that secretly you wanted to know so I told you.”
Hmm… this could be an interesting game. Both teams have two wins
on the year… with Arizona up by a half-game in the standings thanks
to a bye week. Offensively and defensively they’re similar (with
Seattle slightly better so far offensively and Arizona a bit better
on defense). Seattle has been better at home… 2-1 there overall,
with solid victories over St. Louis and Jacksonville. Arizona
has only played one road game… and they easily controlled Jacksonville
in that contest. Both teams lost to San Francisco. Both teams
lost to Indianapolis. I mean seriously… this is close. The Seahawks
have shut out two teams at home though… and I feel more confident
in their ability to win this game. (Oh yeah… did I mention quarterback?
See… the thing that throws everything I noted out of whack is
Seattle and their quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck played in their
week one victory, left in the first half of a week two loss, didn’t
play in the next two losses, and then returned last week when
they pounded Jacksonville. And see… that doesn’t show up in all
of those stats that show these clubs as being even. Guess what?
They’re not.)
Bob: Seattle
Terry: Seattle
Dad: Arizona
Mike: Seattle
Gus: Arizona
Buffalo
at New York (Jets) (9½)
– “Think ya used enough dynamite
there, Butch?” Sure… it may have been a loss for
New York… but I was impressed by both the Jets and the Dolphins
in last week’s contest. New York scored multiple times late in
the game and offensively looked significantly better than they
did against New Orleans. Buffalo… I just can’t even remotely fathom
what to look at. 3 points… at home… against Cleveland? After looking
like they might be able to make some noise once the Patriots and
Bucs had faced them… the Bills have rolled over and played dead
against the Saints, Dolphins and Browns. Brutal stuff. Just brutal.
The Jets need to get their swagger back if they expect a shot
in what is becoming a very interesting AFC East. And this game
is a perfect opportunity to do just that… with a couple of easy
games lined up (Buffalo and then Oakland) before facing Miami
again at home.
Bob: New York
Terry: New York
Dad: New York
Mike: New York
Molly: New York
Tennessee
at New England (9)
– “No, no, not yet. Not until me
and Harvey get the rules straightened out.” “Rules? In a knife
fight? No rules.” “Well, if there ain’t going to be any rules,
let’s get the fight started. Someone count 1, 2, 3 go.”
I told you I was done with the Titans. And I am. Some gladiators
they turned out to be. New England is heading home with something
to prove. They’ve played their best at home so far… and, they
seem to be getting a bit healthier. For one example, Jerod Mayo
should be ready to take on a bigger role this week as he returns
from an injury. New England heads to London next week, then the
bye, and… well… they return for what could be the most challenging
stretch of the year… Miami, at Indianapolis, New York (Jets),
at New Orleans, and then at Miami. This game is pretty important
if they want to hit that stretch with a winning record and some
positive results after an inconsistent start. (Look for the Patriots
and the old-school uniforms this week. No word on whether Dan
Pastorini will start for the Oilers as part of the legacy game.)
Bob: New England
Terry: New England
Dad: New England
Mike: New England
Gus: Tennessee
Chicago
at Atlanta (3)
– “Kid, there’s something I ought
to tell you. I never shot anybody before.” “One hell of a time
to tell me.” You could argue that Chicago should
be undefeated heading in to this contest… and they are certainly
looking a bit better every week. But this is easily the best team
they’ve faced all year, and the Falcons demolished a strong San
Francisco team last week. In fact… judging Atlanta by what we
know now of Miami… for their season, only the Carolina game was
against a poor club. Atlanta has a well-balanced offense, and,
while not great, I don’t think their defense is getting enough
credit. I also haven’t been too impressed by Jay Cutler. I know…
I know… win the game and don’t turn the ball over… stop looking
at things like passing yardage… the past few weeks his numbers
are pretty solid… blah-blah-blah. But against the Lions the game
was tied at halftime… and in what turn out to be a bit of a laugher,
Cutler only amassed 141 passing yards. Something doesn’t connect
with me about him… it doesn’t seem right… and while I can’t describe
it, I wonder if he’s getting that team-is-successful-quarterback-credit
right now. (Remind me next week to argue that in his division,
he is the worst-match for his current team of the starting quarterbacks.
Ok?) What does impress me about Chicago is that Matt Forte looked
very good against Detroit in their last game. And if he can continue
to turn in about 100 rushing yards each game, the Bears will be
tough to beat. All of that said… Atlanta has been fairly consistent…
dating back to last season… and rarely flops. New England shut
them down… but that looks like a blip under Mike Smith and not
the norm.
Bob: Atlanta
Terry: Atlanta
Dad: Atlanta
Mike: Atlanta
Molly: Atlanta
Denver
at San Diego (4) – “Boy,
you know every time I see Hole in the Wall again, it’s like seeing
it fresh for the first time. And every time that happens, I keep
asking myself the same question: How could I be so damn stupid
to keep coming back here?” If the Broncos win
this game, they would hand the Chargers their third loss of the
year and basically be in charge of the division with no apparent
challenges nearby. And considering the way San Diego has played,
I have no idea how they get favored here. Was it the stirring
rally against Pittsburgh when that game was all but over? Maybe.
Is it some belief in the idea that San Diego is better than they’ve
shown us? Probably. Is it because they’ve dominated the Broncos
over the past few seasons? (Ding-ding-ding-winner-ding-ding-ding…)
Hold on though… because as we saw in week one with San Diego and
New England struggling against teams they’ve controlled for years…
recent history isn’t guaranteeing today’s results. Denver has
shut down every opponent they’ve played this year. Their defense
has been really impressive. San Diego… not so much. Every opponent
has hit at least 20 against San Diego, including the ridiculously
incompetent Oakland Raiders.
Bob: Denver
Terry: Denver
Dad: Denver
Mike: San Diego
Gus: Denver
~ ~
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Bob
– Last week 5-9, season 41-34-1
Dad – Last week 7-7, season 40-35-1
Mike – Last week 6-8, season 39-36-1
The Dogs – Last week 4-10, season 31-44-1
Terry – Last week 6-8, season 30-45-1