We
have an amazing finish set up for this week. I suppose I should
say not on the field… the games are a mess. But in our quest to
name the champion of our efforts to pick against the spread, we
have four with a real shot at the honors.
Mediocre
results last week… everyone was 8-8 or 7-9… which didn’t shake
things up much, but it did provide us with this…
The
Dogs are four games out of the lead, and we are headed into what
very easily could be the nuttiest week of the season. Houston
favored by a touchdown-plus over New England? Cleveland favored
over Jacksonville? The Jets by two scores… 10 points… over the
Jaguars?
Yup…
the slate is set up perfectly for a pair that makes decisions
based on treats and treats alone.
Unfortunately
we do have a casualty. Terry can’t win. Last year’s champ is out.
Even if she goes 16-0 and I miss them all, the best she can do
is tie. And yet… she has already cracked 100 wins on the season.
Last year she turned in 142 wins (128 for the year is the even
mark). So… based on average… she could turn in a winning record
for the past two seasons. 7 or more this week would do that for
her.
I
have to be honest… there isn’t much to evaluate or comment on
here when it comes to the games. With so much already decided,
many of the games are meaningless in one way (or many ways). Let’s
head to Pittsburgh for an example of what I mean (and just because
it got me laughing), where LaMarr Woodley wants
you to know he’s an idiot. (I had a link to a Sports
Illustrated story here, link no longer active.)
Now
it isn’t because he has the
thought that these two teams will not play
hard that makes Woodley an idiot. Instead, it’s that the Steelers…
well… they suck.
Ok…
sure… that’s a bit harsh. They don’t really suck. But see… umm…
LaMarr… it’s like this… the Steelers wrote their own story for
the year. Last season, Pittsburgh played the toughest schedule
in the NFL. They made the playoffs. This year, their schedule…
yeah… not so tough if we’re being honest. (Wait until I show you
what Tennessee was lined up against. Might not impress you… but
it’s significantly more difficult than what Pittsburgh faced.)
If
Pittsburgh had beaten Cincinnati just once this year (I know…
part of Woodley’s comments involve the fear created by that dreaded
third time in a season theory… got it… but you did lose already,
twice, to one of the teams you are thumping your chest about)…
if Pittsburgh had defeated Kansas City, Oakland or Cleveland (they
lost to all three, Oakland at home, as part of a five-game losing
streak… repeat… lost to all three)… I mean, Pittsburgh wouldn’t
be concerned with what other teams are doing if they win just
one of those games that good teams should win.
Cincinnati?
They swept four games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They did
their work to make the playoffs.
New
England? They went 4-2 in their division and are currently 7-4
in the conference. (Pittsburgh went 2-4 in their division and
are 5-6 against AFC opponents. How can you scream about other
teams slacking off when you don’t have a winning record in the
conference and will finish with a losing record in your division?
How? Makes zero sense.) The Pats took care of business.
So
it’s easy LaMarr…
Beat
Oakland at home…
Score
more than 6 points against Cleveland (in a game that frankly looked
like the better team won)…
Do
something and this isn’t a problem. The other teams did win,
and whether it’s to avoid you or to get some rest because they
don’t have a week off, it honestly doesn’t matter what New England
and Cincinnati are doing. It’s just whining and moaning from you.
And
by the way… get some better material. Because after the fun Indianapolis
is having getting bashed by the world for throwing in the towel,
if you had instead mentioned the Colts giving up… well, that could
have been pretty funny... and thanks to what it did for the Jets,
even more relevant.
(By
the way… people in Pittsburgh don’t really agree with me. In a
survey being conducted by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette,
as of about noon on Thursday, December 31st, they had received
3,050 votes in a poll asking “Do you think the Cincinnati Bengals
and New England Patriots will intentionally lose so that the Steelers
won’t make the playoffs?” 55% of the respondents said yes, they
thought the two teams would intentionally lose.)
I’m
approaching this week with a foolproof system. (And to paraphrase
one of my favorite Douglas Adams quotes, people that think something
is completely foolproof underestimate the ability of complete
fools.) Here’s what I’m doing…
I’m
picking all underdogs this week. All 16 of them.
(Hold
on… it does get a bit more complex than that. In a bit of wavering,
I’m then going to make some adjustments. For instance, if a team
is in the playoffs at the start of the day but needs the game
to remain there, I will consider changing things for them. That
means Baltimore and New York (Jets) might get a second look… and
basically only those two since they are the only teams in right
now that might be out of it by Sunday night. If a favored team
needs the game for some amazing reason, for instance Philly and
Minnesota are still in the hunt for a week off, then I will consider
changing for them. And, if for some reason the favorite just knocks
my for a loop considering who they are playing, then I will take
a look at that.)
But
basically… get ready… because I’m parading the underdogs. I guess.
(We’ll see.)
We’re
breaking out the big guns to finish off the season… Forrest
Gump quotes…
Indianapolis
at Buffalo (7)
– “Gump! What’s your sole purpose
in this army?” “To do whatever you tell me, drill sergeant!” “God
damn it, Gump! You’re a god damn genius! This is the most outstanding
answer I have ever heard. You must have a goddamn I.Q. of 160.
You are goddamn gifted, Private Gump.” My basic
rule would lead me to Indianapolis in this game… pick the underdog.
But some things have me wondering. For instance, last week’s roll-over-and-play-dead
effort from the Colts. Thought that was stupid of them on so many
levels I just can coherently explore it right now. And this Bills
team scared the Patriots and thumped the Dolphins. They stink…
but maybe not that much. So… perhaps… you know… take the Bills.
A closer look though… and yeah, I’m taking the Colts. See, we’re
talking 7-points folks. Buffalo hasn’t scored 20 points since
October… when they got lucky against Carolina. I kid you not,
since November 1st the Bills have scored more than 17 points in
a game just once (against Miami). Indy may very well win this
game. I’m not willing to bet on it, but they could. But the idea
that Buffalo is going to roll over them? I don’t see it.
Bob: Indianapolis
Terry: Buffalo
Dad: Indianapolis
Mike: Indianapolis
Molly: Buffalo
New
Orleans at Carolina (Pick)
– “That kid may be the stupidest
son of a bitch I’ve ever seen, but he sure is fast!”
Tough game here… since the underdog mentality actually says to
take the Saints. (Road team in a toss up.) Let’s find out if there
is something in Carolina’s favor. (Other than Brees probably not
bringing a helmet out of the locker room.) You know… something
like inspired play while kicking the tails of NFC playoff teams
in recent weeks. Or maybe recently ending the season of an NFC
team that wanted to reach the playoffs. I’m talking about something
like a 26-7 demolition of Minnesota or a 41-9 throttling of New
York (Giants). If only we had something like that to tell us that
Carolina should be taken seriously here. I’m going to take the
Panthers… exactly because Brees may sit, they’re playing well,
seem to be driving at getting to 8-8 and finishing strong, and
I really don’t see New Orleans fighting hard if they get behind.
Bob: Carolina
Terry: New Orleans
Dad: New Orleans
Mike: Carolina
Gus: Carolina
Jacksonville
at Cleveland (1½)
– “Those must be comfortable shoes,
I bet you could walk all day in shoes like those and not feel
a thing.” “My feet hurt.” “My momma always said you can tell a
lot about a person by their shoes, where they’re going, where
they’ve been.” Why the hell is Cleveland the favorite?
Seriously… they’ve defeated Oakland and Kansas City since their
wonderful effort against Pittsburgh. But have the Jaguars really
fallen that far thanks to losing to Indy and New England? Apparently
so… and I’ll take the Jaguars because of it.
Bob: Jacksonville
Terry: Jacksonville
Dad: Cleveland
Mike: Jacksonville
Molly: Jacksonville
Philadelphia
at Dallas (3)
– “Lieutenant Dan. Ice cream.”
While joking about the Saints being the underdog in the second
game we reviewed, let’s face it… here is the first contest where
I’m really looking at the underdog… looking at the favorite… and
wondering what to do. In fairness… understanding that Carolina
is a favorite by being at home in a meaningless week 17 game…
I’ve picked three straight underdogs. Am I going to take the fourth
one here… with a division title on the line for both clubs… a
home playoff game on the line for both clubs… and a first round
bye on the table for Philly? The Dallas team has to be flying
emotionally since defeating New Orleans. Not only did that shed
a huge weight from their shoulders… but the next week they took
out Washington while Carolina humiliated New York. Philly on the
other hand has everyone talking… most notably, and annoyingly,
the players on the team. They haven’t lost since mid-November,
and have been cruising in recent games. I see weaknesses though.
New York put up 38 on them… in a game I certainly don’t believe
Philly won as much as New York lost. (Yeah special teams! Let’s
hear it for Big Blue and special teams folks! And their defense!
Wow. Anyway…) Then last week they beat Denver in a close game
that they led 20-7 at halftime. The thing is… believing Philly
isn’t as good as they think they are… well, I can’t really prove
that. I believe it will play out that way, especially if they
don’t have a bye week. But it’s an emotional kind of thing. If
Arizona can make it to the Super Bowl last year… Philadelphia
can this year. And Dallas? Sure… I’m impressed by the way the
defense has looked the past couple of weeks… but believing in
their improvement might be emotional as well. And their true test
comes when elimination is on the line. So here, in the game with
alot of research to potentially think about, I’m just sticking
to my plan… the underdog… and taking Philly.
Bob: Philadelphia
Terry: Dallas
Dad: Philadelphia
Mike: Dallas
Gus: Dallas
Chicago
(3) at Detroit
– “I’m sorry I ruined your New Year’s
Eve party, Lieutenant Dan. She tasted like cigarettes.”
Ok... this one is different. The Lions have given up 457 points
this season. Yeah… that’s as bad as it gets. Guess who’s number
two. This isn’t a trick… isn’t meant to get you wondering about
the Bears or some funny answer. The answer is St. Louis, having
given up 408… followed by Kansas City at 400. Instead of a trick,
I want you to look at that difference between worst and second-worst.
That’s 50 points. The Detroit Lions are allowing over 3-points
per game more than any other team in the NFL. Let’s just say that
piece of information strikes me as comforting when it comes to
dealing with picking Jay Cutler and his abilities when working
out of his suitcase on the road. One thing the Bears have done
all year is bury inferior opponents. I know… 6-9… not good. But
their schedule featured two divisional teams going to the playoffs
(Green Bay and Minnesota, and they went 1-3 in those games). It
also had Baltimore (a loss, currently a playoff team in the AFC),
Cincinnati (yup… a loss… and a team in the AFC playoffs), Arizona
(NFC division winner), and Philadelphia (NFC playoff team). So
we’re at 1-7 against playoff teams. Their other two losses came
against Atlanta and San Francisco… not good efforts on their part,
but not exactly embarrassing losses for them. The Bears aren’t
good folks… but they’re not bad either. Unlike the Steelers… with
players whining about their fate in the final week when a look
at the schedule shows they failed to take care of business… when
playing teams they should defeat, the Bears do defeat them.
Bob: Chicago
Terry: Detroit
Dad: Chicago
Mike: Chicago
Molly: Chicago
New England at Houston (8)
– “Stupid is as stupid does.”
I’m just not taking Houston in a must-win. I’m not. I refuse to
do it.
Bob: New England
Terry: New England
Dad: New England
Mike: New England
Gus: Houston
Pittsburgh
(3) at Miami –
“Have you found Jesus yet, Gump?”
“I didn’t know I was supposed to be looking for him, sir.”
I’m taking the underdog. Go Dolphins! The Steelers are simply
way too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable with them. Look
at their losses and tell me you trust them. Look at their team
and tell me it is focused and has the proper leadership slated
to take the field this week. I don’t know that their defense can
stop Miami from putting 24-27 on the board. And, if the Dolphins
can take an early lead (something that killed them in the past
two weeks, when they fell behind and just couldn’t catch up),
I believe they can run the clock and hold that lead. (By the way…
funny side note. The Post-Gazette, in addition to their
poll this week, also ran a story about how the playoffs are now
a waiting game for the Steelers. Now… it isn’t worth linking to.
The intent was obviously that the Steelers couldn’t pull a win-and-in…
they had to wait for other results to become finals. That said…
when I saw that blurb of wait and see… all I could think of was
how it seemed to assume a victory over Miami was a given, as if
it had already happened. And that my friends is the magic of the
final week game. Something almost always seems to break right
so that a team… had they won… would have made the playoffs because
all of the other things they needed to have work out actually
happened. Except, that team needing the help goes out and loses.
I’m not hearing a peep come out of Miami heading into this game.
I think they’re worrying about the game and how to win it. I feel
like Pittsburgh is already making excuses. Thought it was worth
noting.)
Bob: Miami
Terry: Miami
Dad: Miami
Mike: Pittsburgh
Molly: Pittsburgh
New
York (Giants) at Minnesota (9)
– “Have you ever been with a girl,
Forrest?” “I sit next to them in my Home Economics class.”
A few years ago I came up with a theory that the Giants… for whatever
reason… play really well against the Vikings. Coaches have changed…
players have changed… and all signs should point to a very weak
and uninspired New York defense folding the tents and getting
creamed by a Minnesota club that needs a victory to get a week
off. Guess what? In the past, rarely have games between these
two teams made sense and followed the logic. I do wonder if Favre
is getting tired. I do wonder if losses to Carolina and Chicago
mean something… or nothing at all. But I don’t wonder about this
game. I actually expect a New York victory. (I mean that.) What
I don’t expect is the Vikings to win by 10 or more.
Bob: New York
Terry: New York
Dad: Minnesota
Mike: Minnesota
Gus: Minnesota
Cincinnati
at New York (Jets) (10)
– “My Mama always said you’ve got
to put the past behind you before you can move on.”
Let’s add some perspective to this game. Cincy has a deep running
game and they’ve played good defense all season. So even if they
do sit several starters, they can’t sit everyone, and I expect
them to be able to run well when they have the ball, and play
well against New York’s offense. In 15 games, they’ve only lost
twice by large margins… against Minnesota and Houston. Let’s face
facts… the Vikings and Texans have better offenses than the Jets.
On top of that… New York scores under 20-points per game. I wouldn’t
be stunned to see New York win. I really wouldn’t. I would be
surprised if either team scores 20 points. I’m thinking 19-17
or 16-13 for a final score in this one. In fact… let’s call it…
I say that with less than a minute to play, the Jets will be lining
up for a field goal attempt that will decide whether or not they
go to the playoffs. Heck, I’ve already explained before how they
seem reliant on the field goal this season… it would be a perfect
ending to see the score 14-13 Cincinnati with 25-seconds to go
and New York facing third or fourth down and a 42-yard attempt.
Bob: Cincinnati
Terry: Cincinnati
Dad: Cincinnati
Mike: New York
Molly: Cincinnati
San
Francisco (7) at St. Louis
– “I had run for 3 years, 2 months,
14 days, and 16 hours.” “Quiet, quiet! He’s gonna say something!”
“I’m pretty tired. I think I’ll go home now.”
My approach to this week so far has led me to take one favorite…
Chicago. And that was because Detroit has just been awful on defense.
Well… as noted when we looked at that game, St. Louis isn’t much
better defensively. The Rams also score about 4-points less per
game than the Lions do. St. Louis in recent weeks can point at
a 21-point loss to Arizona, a 40-point loss to Tennessee, 7 losses
in a row, no wins at all at home this season, and… well… I’m convinced
already. (But just for giggles… Frisco at a glance. 2 wins out
of their last 3… they lost to Philly on the road, but defeated
Detroit and Arizona. Good for about 20 in this one. That will
be enough.)
Bob: San Francisco
Terry: St. Louis
Dad: San Francisco
Mike: San Francisco
Gus: St. Louis
Atlanta
(2½) at Tampa Bay
– “Lieutenant Dan got me invested
in some kind of fruit company. So then I got a call from him,
saying we don’t have to worry about money no more. And I said,
that’s good! One less thing.” Would you believe
Tampa has 3 wins this year? How about 2 wins in a row… including
last week over a Saints team that still hadn’t wrapped up home
field advantage in the NFC and was still sort of interested? Atlanta
comes in to this game on a streak of their own… with wins over
New York and Buffalo. I’d keep the streak alive and go with the
underdog, but I’m breaking my thought process here for two reasons.
First, as nice and solid as I think the underdog theory may be,
the fact remains that favorites are occasionally winning football
games and/or covering spreads. (I know. Stunning. I promise, the
second reason will be better.) And second, those two straight
victories for Atlanta just so happen to coincide with the return
of Matt Ryan. I like Ryan. And… funny thing… the Falcons have
a shot at a winning record for the year. Yup… 9-7. And since the
Falcons could use a winning record… I like them to play just a
little bit harder in this one.
Bob: Atlanta
Terry: Tampa Bay
Dad: Atlanta
Mike: Atlanta
Molly: Tampa Bay
Green
Bay at Arizona (3)
– “I'm sorry I had to fight in the
middle of your Black Panther party.” This game
has been the toughest one for me to consider so far. Neither club
gains or losses a thing based on this contest. Not… a… single…
thing. They both play next week. Arizona gets a home game, while
Green Bay is a traveling wild card. That’s already decided. Not
up for debate. In fact, I could be very wrong, but I think there’s
a chance that these two teams will play again… next week… in Arizona.
(I have to admit… I don’t want to figure it out. Dallas and Philly
are involved… and based on which team wins, there are a ton of
variables. Including Minnesota. They’re involved in this too.
But let’s see. Let’s just make sure I’m not insane thinking it
could happen. If Philly wins they’ll be 12-4. If Minnesota wins
they’ll be 12-4. And that makes Arizona the fourth seed no matter
what they do. Now, if Philly wins, that means Dallas lost, and
the Cowboys would finish at 10-6. Green Bay beat Dallas, so win
(11-5) or loss (10-6), the Packers would be seeded above a 10-6
Dallas club. And that means they’d be the fifth seed and would
play the fourth seed. Yeah… Arizona. Ok… so they could meet again
next week. See? That wasn’t so hard. Just don’t get me started
on Minnesota and Philly losing and what happens next.) Anyway…
all that means I don’t expect much in this contest except a fairly
basic game. Neither club is going to want to run anything special,
considering they might want to use it in a playoff game the next
week… you know, against this same team. I’m taking the underdog…
based on my approach to the week. Both clubs give up about the
same amount of points each week… Green Bay scores a bit more often…
but I really don’t think there is much to be read from that when
this game is going to be amazingly vanilla.
Bob: Green Bay
Terry: Green Bay
Dad: Green Bay
Mike: Green Bay
Gus: Arizona
Kansas
City at Denver (13)
– “What’s my destiny, Mama?” “You’re
gonna have to figure that out for yourself.” Ok…
welcome a the game that matters to one and not the other. Earlier
I told you how bad Detroit was on defense. And then we got to
St. Louis. Remember the team I mentioned that was third on that
list? Right… Kansas City. Now, there are warning bells ringing
in my head right now. Warning bells that are sounding because
some team out of the playoffs right now... a team that needs help…
is going to lose only to find that help granted. My guess is that
it is likely to be Pittsburgh (or maybe Houston… but I can never
work with Houston, so we’re thinking Pittsburgh). I just have
a funny feeling that New York or Baltimore is going to lose. (Ok…
I have a funny feeling the Jets are going to lose. More on Baltimore
in a second.) And wouldn’t it be hysterical if Denver lost the
last game of the season to keep them out of the playoffs? Wouldn’t
it be funny for the second year in a row? Sure it would. I guess.
(Hey Pittsburgh. Listen up. Frankly… considering the way Denver
has played at times, I think Cincinnati and New England are more
concerned about Denver getting into the playoffs than seeing Pittsburgh
arriving for a week one contest… but that’s just me.) What I can
tell you is that despite warning bells ringing, I don’t see any
way the Broncos lose this game. And I expect them to win big…
especially since if I read the schedule right, neither the Ravens
or Jets will be finished with their game before the Broncos play.
In other words… it will most certainly matter to them from beginning
to end.
Bob: Denver
Terry: Kansas City
Dad: Denver
Mike: Denver
Molly: Denver
Baltimore
(10) at Oakland –
“Sometimes, I guess there just
aren’t enough rocks.” Oakland barely crosses the
10-point mark on the scoreboard in most contests. The Ravens will
likely know by kickoff that a loss would eliminate them from the
playoffs. (Depends who wins an early game. The reality is that
they do need to win.) I feel amazingly comfortable taking Baltimore
here.
Bob: Baltimore
Terry: Oakland
Dad: Baltimore
Mike: Baltimore
Gus: Oakland
Washington
at San Diego (4)
– “Yeah, sir, you might want to
send a maintenance man over to that office across the way. The
lights are off, and they must be looking for a fuse box, ‘cause
them flashlights, they keep me awake.” Can someone
explain to me how so many clearly better teams are underdogs,
but the Chargers are a fairly solid favorite against a club that
has given several opponents headaches in recent months? Is it
because of how Washington has looked in their past 2 games? Probably.
(Ok… that’s definitely part of it.) Is it because they’re begging
us to take Washington? Hmm… maybe. The reality of it is that the
Washington offense has been essentially removed from the team
in recent games. And I do mean removed. I can’t recall seeing
a team that had shown moments of decent play so thoroughly and
savagely beaten. New York and Dallas ripped the Redskins apart,
stomped on them, ran them over again in reverse, and then tossed
them to the side of the road. This isn’t the Redskins club that
almost knocked off the Cowboys just a few weeks ago. So let’s
say that we believe the Redskins… at best… will limp to the end
of the year with a 10 to 13 point effort in this one. (And I think
that’s being way too optimistic.) Will the Chargers offer enough
to score 17? I’m actually going to say yes. As I said about Cincy
a short time ago… you can’t sit everyone. And while I admire the
fight Washington showed several times in games… umm, yeah, back
in November… this is not the same club that barely lost to Dallas,
Philadelphia and New Orleans over three straight games. They could
surprise me… they could give a great effort… but I think this
is more of a club ready to accept that their head coach is about
to get fired… more of a club that wants to go home.
Bob: San Diego
Terry: Washington
Dad: San Diego
Mike: San Diego
Molly: San Diego
Tennessee
(4) at Seattle
– “That’s all I have to say about
that.” Only 5 AFC clubs have been eliminated from
the playoffs. Tennessee is one of them. So… nothing driving either
of these clubs. And despite my plea for the underdogs… I’ve actually
selected six favorites. Granted, a couple fell into those special
interest corollaries I have for my underdog theory, based on opponent
and motivations. What I can tell you is simple. Since starting
the year 0-6, the Titans have lost 2 games. Indianapolis. San
Diego. So… I don’t see them losing to Seattle. Want more? Ok.
Remember how they started 0-6? Guess who they lost to. Pittsburgh…
Houston… New York (Jets)… Jacksonville… Indianapolis… New England.
Meaning, we couldn’t have known it then, and they really did stink
during that time, but those were fairly decent opponents since
we find today that those 6 losses were against teams that all
have 8 wins. (Ok… Jacksonville has 7… but you get the point, since
they might have 8 by the end of this week.) And as if that wasn’t
enough… best player on the field… Chris Johnson.
Bob: Tennessee
Terry: Seattle
Dad: Tennessee
Mike: Tennessee
Gus: Seattle
~ ~
~ ~ ~
Bob
– Last week 8-8, season 123-114-3
Dad – Last week 7-9, season 122-115-3
Mike – Last week 8-8, season 121-116-3
The Dogs – Last week 8-8, season 119-118-3
Terry – Last week 7-9, season 107-130-3
Molly:
Last week 3-5, season 63-55-2
Gus: Last week 5-3, season 56-63-1