We
have a few things to mention as we get going on this week’s games.
And we’ll start with our friendly competition, which includes
a tip of the cap to Dad.
After
posting a losing record in week one… 2 games below even… Dad’s
been at even once and had winning records 4 times. All of that
consistency, especially avoiding the bad, has moved him to the
top spot of our charts. So… congrats to him.
Also…
let’s note where Molly stands. She went 5-2 last week and on her
own has contributed a 24-21 effort for the Dogs. Gus shook a bit
of his recent troubles off last week, with the pair leading everyone
in week 6 by scoring a 9-5 record. They’re still not great on
the year, but suddenly they can see the lights of an even mark
in the distance. Stay tuned on them.
Terry
showed some signs of returning to her 2008 form. She was on a
ridiculous slump of 4 losing weeks in a row after going even to
open the campaign. Maybe an even record in week 6 doesn’t gain
any ground for her, but it could be a sign of things to come,
with the sleeping dragon ready to wake.
Now…
that said… last week I shared two observations with you.
Number
one – That large favorites… 8-points or more… were doing amazingly
well on the year and were on the verge of covering in 80-percent
of the games when they were at home. Naturally, large favorites
stunk the joint up overall in week 6. But… you should still keep
this in mind since on the whole they continue to impress for the
season. On top of being the safest way to bet on a favorite, they
are not just winning… they’re covering about two-thirds of the
time when at home.
Number
two – That the underdogs are doing quite well. And, when you take
out the large favorites, in any game with a spread under 8-points
the underdogs have a better record. Well… some things don’t change.
After last week it doesn’t matter if the large spread is included
or not. Favorites went 4-10 last week. Yup… 4-10. So the underdogs
are now 46-43-1 on the year. (And in those contests with spreads
under-8, they are 36-27-1.) Worth noting… especially since Oakland
and Buffalo won their contests outright, meaning that Philadelphia
and New York (Jets) have some explaining to do.
Beyond
those general observations I don’t have alot to add. Only 13 games
on the schedule this week… for some incredibly strange reason
there are 6 byes. And… we have the London game, with Tampa Bay
supposedly the home team for that one. (Molly is picking up the
extra game for the dogs this week… Gus will get that honor next
week.)
Anyway…
underdogs on a roll… three straight weeks. Consider yourself warned.
(And judging by early returns from our crack staff, it looks like
none of us are paying attention.)
In
honor of a game in London… more Monty Python. The amazing Life
of Brian for the quotes this week.
San
Diego (4½) at Kansas City –
“He’s not the Messiah. He’s a very
naughty boy!” Norv Turner… how does this guy keep
his job? Yeah… Marty… I know. Can’t coach when the chips are on
the table. Put him in the playoffs and he tightens up, changing
everything that worked for him during the regular season. But
here’s the thing about Marty… there is no way… none…
zero… ain’t happening… that this San Diego roster doesn’t win
between 11 and 13 games every year under his leadership. I understand
greatness is determined in part by the rings… or at least some
showing in the playoffs. And I do believe that’s fair and Marty
flopped in this regard. But if Marty isn’t the best regular season
head coach of the past twenty to thirty years, he’s in the top
five. Give Marty a team and two years and you’ll be selling playoff
tickets. Norv Turner on the other hand is a joke. And yet… amazingly
enough… I do believe that when December arrives the Chargers will
have an outside shot to win this division. I think the Broncos
will stumble in the final eight games. I don’t think they’ll stumble
enough to fall out of the playoffs… and I’m actually just about
convinced they will win this division… but Denver has in their
history had fast starts or divisional leads that looked good and
then eroded quickly. This season feels different in a way, and
that’s why I think they’ll still go at least 5-5, get to 11 wins,
and take the division. But my point for this game… finally… is
simple… San Diego can’t give away another game they should win
if they think the playoffs are possible. Too many other teams
are not only ahead of them, but will finish with better records
than them in the wild card hunt. They lost to Pittsburgh… and
may need that tie-breaker. They beat Miami… a team that looks
like they are showing signs of becoming a threat, but need wins
because their losses so far hurt in several ways. And if San Diego
isn’t going to catch Denver, then last year’s good fortune of
a divisional spot in the playoffs is erased. 8-8 won’t do it.
They need 10… 11 wins… and this is one of them. I’m expecting
a big show out of them this week as they arrive and take Kansas
City’s lunch money. And if they don’t deliver, then pack their
bags for January vacations now, because the playoffs aren’t happening
for San Diego without the AFC West crown.
Bob: San Diego
Terry: Kansas City
Dad: San Diego
Mike: San Diego
Molly: Kansas City
Indianapolis
(13) at St. Louis
– “If you want to join the People’s
Front of Judea, you have to really hate the Romans.” “I do!” “Oh
yeah. How much?” “A lot!” “Right, you’re in.”
Last week the Rams really kicked things into gear… scoring a whopping
20 points in a loss to Jacksonville. I repeat… a whopping 20 points.
This is a team that has been shut out in a third of their games,
and failed to clear 10-points in two-thirds of their games. So
yeah… you could say I’m not feeling it. I’d launch an investigation
for you into how they do at home or in domes… but let’s face it:
(1) They got blown out at home by another dome team, Minnesota,
just two weeks ago. And, (2) Indianapolis is this week’s opponent.
So, you do the easy math. I don’t think we need much more. (Ok…
fine… a little bit more. They’ve actually only played 2 home games
so far. Minnesota beat them by 28 points and Green Bay… yes, Green
Bay… beat them by 21. You’ll have a hard time earning any support
for the Rams with those results.) Indy comes into this game fresh
and rested after their bye week… bringing along a 5-0 record and
the past 3 games they’ve won by a minimum of 17-points. Do you
really want more research? St. Louis is scoring under 10 points
a game on average while giving up just under 30 (roughly 27 to
be more exact).
Bob: Indianapolis
Terry: Indianapolis
Dad: St. Louis
Mike: Indianapolis
Gus: Indianapolis
Chicago
at Cincinnati (1½)
– “Oh, it’s blessed are the meek!
Oh, I’m glad they’re getting something, they have a hell of a
time.” I’ll grant you, the Bears leveled the Lions.
But other than that, they might be the least impressive 3-2 team
of any with that record. Allow me to expand on that a bit. Did
you see last week’s game against Atlanta? They had troubles with
their offense that defy description. I mean, they couldn’t even
execute the classic “couldn’t score the touchdown from in close,
so settle for the field goal, take the points and look for the
next possession” playbook. Last week I asked you to remind me
to explain how Cutler is the worst match for his team in the division.
Well… here we go. I honestly believe you could argue that right
now, Cutler isn’t any better than the third best quarterback in
the NFC North. Not all of football… not in the entire NFC… the
third best in the NFC North division. Brett Favre is
the obvious choice as being the top performer this season so far.
And, Matthew Stafford is holding on to fourth place. Easy enough.
No room for arguments there. That leaves Cutler and Aaron Rodgers.
And with both clubs tied at 3-2, and with similar point totals
(Green Bay is scoring 26 points a game overall, with Chicago at
24), you don’t have to dig deep to at least acknowledge that differentiating
between the two is like picking a favorite popsicle flavor. Grape
is good. Cherry is good. You don’t really win or lose either way.
So even if the deeper stats or career numbers or whatever measure
you want to use do favor Cutler (more on this concept in a second)…
the general reality is you could at least successfully create
the argument that he’s the third best in his division. (Rodgers
beat him head-to-head. A week one Green Bay victory. See? Easy.
Right?) Well, debate it all you wish, it’s the concept that Cutler
isn’t an automatic selection for awesomeness that’s important…
because I honestly believe that there are only four elite NFL
quarterbacks right now… Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees
and Ben Roethlisberger. Any of the 28 other clubs would gladly
take one of these 4 over what they have without hesitation. (Argue
about Roethlisberger if you wish… two titles… he’s worthy of the
conversation.) So by positioning Cutler as… at best… second in
his division, and… in my opinion… arguably third in his
division, what is evident is that Jay Cutler isn’t an obviously
in demand item. And that matters when matching him up properly
with his team. Can you argue with what Brett Favre has done in
Minnesota? Nope. 6-0 and looking pretty good. Some dominating
play, some late game heroics, and so far all the markings of a
playoff season in progress. They obviously have the guy they want.
Green Bay? Well… the Packers let Favre go in order to play Rodgers.
So, question whether or not the Packers have fulfilled their potential
this season or last (they haven’t), but you’ll find they believe
they have the right guy at quarterback. And, I would allow them
that. So… that means we have two clubs that are more comfortable
and set on the quarterbacks they have than Chicago is with Cutler.
Detroit? So far I like what this team is doing with Matthew Stafford.
I don’t think Cutler would work there… because even though Stafford
isn’t as good right now as Cutler, this is a building process
that is going to take some time. And what I saw just a few months
ago, while shooting his way out of Denver, is that Cutler is really
impatient and immature. Now… other than the Lions… the Bears have
a 3-point win over Pittsburgh and a 6-point win over Seattle.
They lost a game to Atlanta that, honestly, if the league was
made up of 8-year olds and parents weren’t keeping score, the
play on the field would have said the Bears were the better team.
And, they lost the season opener to Green Bay. So go talking about
Chicago and Cutler all you want… I haven’t seen it. (7 interceptions
on the year… 10 touchdowns passes… an average under 240-yards
per game… hardly the stuff of legend. Although over the past 20-years
of Chicago history, it must look pretty darn impressive for fans
of the team.) In fact, all I have seen is that Denver is a far
superior team without him than they ever were with him. And… oh,
wait… the Bengals and this game… right… ok. Enough on Cutler being
a perfect fit is a media creation and not the truth. Last week
Houston came into Paul Brown Stadium and accomplished 2 things.
First, they need to be looked at with an arched eyebrow and a
bit more respect in the AFC debate. Second, they swatted the Bengals
in the nose and cooled off all of the “could have been undefeated
except” talk. Check out the records… the Bengals score right around
20 points a game… week after week after week. (98 points in the
past 5 games.) Only the Denver defense… and Denver is doing this
to everyone… kept them decidedly below that. So I think it’s safe
to put Cincy down for 4 scores in this contest… let’s say 2 touchdowns
and 2 field goals, but any spot in the range of 16 points to 24
points wouldn’t stun me. The Bears can top that. What really concerns
me about Chicago is the amazing struggles with the running game.
After showing signs of life against Detroit… 121-yards on the
ground… Forte delivered his worst performance of the year against
Atlanta… 23-yards and 2 fumbles. (And calling that one the worst
was difficult, since he had to beat his 29-yard total, 2.2 a carry
with a fumble stinker against Pittsburgh to set the mark as the
worst of the year.) At his current rate, Forte will average 3.4
a carry and won’t clear 1,000-yards for the year. I’m going to
take Chicago… but I guarantee you… if I’m wrong you can look at
Forte to be rushing for less than 60-yards and Cutler to have
the most turnovers of any player on the field.
Bob: Chicago
Terry: Chicago
Dad: Chicago
Mike: Cincinnati
Molly: Chicago
Green Bay (7) at Cleveland
– “The Messiah! The Messiah! Show
us the Messiah!” “The who?” “The Messiah!” “There’s no Messiah
in here. There’s a mess all right, but no Messiah. Now go away!”
Let’s review a few concepts here. Number one, last week Green
Bay finally showed us the team we had been hearing about for months.
They shut out Detroit, 26-0, and had 23 of those points in place
by halftime. A couple of injured players are back. All in all…
solid effort and good feelings all around. In Cleveland we have
multiple issues. They haven’t managed to clear 20 points yet this
season… while the only opponent of theirs that hasn’t cleared
that mark was Buffalo in that brutal event some are referring
to as a football game. In their losses, only Cincinnati has failed
to beat them by 13 or more points. And, word is out that at least
6 active members of the roster, and possibly 12 as of a mid-week
report, are home with the flu. (Apparently the league has a plan
in place that allows for roster exemptions for a team facing multiple
personnel losses due to certain flu situations. Hmm… maybe replacing
like 5 to 8 guys on the roster would help their chances.) Now…
credit where credit is due. Despite my hesitations for saying
they will finally get things going and begin matching the hype
about them (because I’ve thought it before), the Packers have
a winning record, have been outscoring their opponents by roughly
10-points a game, and against St. Louis and Detroit (the two games
on the schedule so far featuring obviously non-playoff level opponents)
they won convincingly. This is a game they should win, against
an opponent facing several problems.
Bob: Green Bay
Terry: Cleveland
Dad: Green Bay
Mike: Green Bay
Gus: Green Bay
Minnesota
at Pittsburgh (4)
– “I am not the Messiah!”
“I say you are Lord, and I should know. I’ve followed a few.”
The big thing to me about this game is that it’s being played
in Pittsburgh. The undefeated Vikings have played 3 at home and
3 on the road. The road games? Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis.
I’m just saying… we might as well toss out those results from
consideration. Because against quality opponents… all playoff
possibilities… and all played in the Metrodome… the Vikings needed
a miracle, a prayer, and every inch of the end zone to defeat
San Francisco… thumped Green Bay for most of the game, but still
had to hold on at the end… and Baltimore was about 2 minutes of
game time, take your pick of 2 minutes less or 2 minutes more,
away from beating them when they lost to the Vikings, 33-31. In
short… quality opposition has been defeated, but we can’t call
that convincing either. Since losing to the Bengals 4 games ago,
the Steelers have defeated the Chargers, Lions and Browns by no
less the 8-points. While struggling early on to find their footing
(1-2 out of the gate, scoring a total of just 27 points combined
in the first 2 contests), they are scoring 27+ per game in recent
weeks and seem to have found a running back in Rashard Mendenhall.
Last year the Steelers had the toughest schedule in the NFL. They
turned in a great effort during the regular season, and finished
it off with a title. Slow start in 2009? I can excuse that. I
have a feeling they are beginning to roll again, and with the
division lead in their sights this game has all the markings of
a victory. (Oh yeah… almost forgot… the Percey Harvin factor.
Harvin has been good, some flashes of brilliance, but not great
this season. So far though, the one thing he has been is on the
field. Any of you watch the game against Baltimore? Because the
Minnesota offense has been good, but is beginning to show some
signs of wear, tear and injury… as exemplified by Harvin.)
Bob: Pittsburgh
Terry: Minnesota
Dad: Minnesota
Mike: Pittsburgh
Molly: Pittsburgh
New
England (14½) at Tampa Bay (In London)
– “Crucifixion?” “Er, no, freedom
actually.” “What?” “Yeah, they said I hadn’t done anything and
I could go and live on an island somewhere.” “Oh I say, that’s
very nice. Well, off you go then.” “No, I’m just pulling your
leg, it’s crucifixion really.” “Oh yes, very good. Well…” “Yes
I know, out of the door, one cross each, line on the left.”
Sure… yeah… this is a Tampa home game. I admit that some of what
the Patriots accomplished against the Titans is because of the
weather conditions. And I admit that I’m not sold on Laurence
Maroney just yet… although everything I saw and heard from the
game indicates he was finally attacking the line of scrimmage
instead of impersonating Gene Kelly. In fact, to sum up my view
of it… I saw a couple of plays that looked like Brady and Moss
were playing at lunch time in a schoolyard instead of on an NFL
field. But… the Brady we saw working with Welker… let’s face it,
that’s the first time we’ve seen it this year. And if Tom Brady
is waking up… that spells bad news for alot of teams. And when
the Patriots offense is clicking, they don’t lose games to teams
they are supposed to beat. On the other side of the field… ok…
get this one. Last week I picked Tampa because I expected them
to play Carolina close, and honestly thought they could get a
win. I was outside with the dogs around 3:30pm or so, came in
and checked the scores, and watched as the Tampa – Carolina score
went from 21-14 to a 21-21 tie. I was thrilled. The spread
was 3½, and since it had to be getting late in the game
at that point, even if Carolina drove the ball I figured it was
likely they would be concentrating on a field goal and victory.
Well... apparently as that score was updated, there was a bit
more time left than I thought, and Carolina used a ton of it.
The next thing that happened was a 16-play, 80-yard touchdown
drive. Took up more than half of the fourth quarter. First down,
second down… first down, second down… slow march down the field,
5-yards at a time. It was so bad that in a drive beginning with
roughly 9-minutes left in the game, the Tampa defense had to start
using their time outs in the hope of saving some of the clock
for their offense when it got within 2-minutes to go. The Bucs
looked like pushovers. Against Carolina. How do you think they’ll
do against a real team?
Bob: New England
Terry: New England
Dad: New England
Mike: New England
Gus: New England
San
Francisco at Houston (3)
– “Okay, sir, my final offer: half
a shekel for an old ex-leper?” “Did you say ex-leper?” “That’s
right, sir, 16 years behind a veil and proud of it, sir.” “Well,
what happened?” “Oh, cured, sir.” “Cured?” “Yes sir, bloody miracle,
sir. Bless you!” “Who cured you?” “Jesus did, sir. I was hopping
along, minding my own business, all of a sudden, up he comes,
cures me! One minute I’m a leper with a trade, next minute my
livelihood’s gone. Not so much as a by-your-leave! ‘You’re cured,
mate.’ Bloody do-gooder.” My how the mighty have
fallen… I think… no… maybe that doesn’t sum it up perfectly at
all. In weeks 2 and 3 we seemed to know what San Francisco was…
a team turning things around and improving. In fact, we knew it
through week 4. They had 3 divisional wins and a road loss to
Minnesota that took a last-minute miracle from the Vikings to
steal a victory. Things were looking good. Until… until Atlanta
showed up and thrashed them in their own stadium. Ahh… but let’s
face it… 3-2, Michael Crabtree on the roster, and still winning
the division. Not quite as impressive as it looked when October
began, but still good. On the other end of this trying to make
the best out of good but really not knowing how to deal with prosperity
battle, we have Houston. 3-3 on the year. No one wants to think
of them as having the potential to get to 10 wins… but last week
they went on the road and brought Cincinnati back to reality.
Their offense has been impressive, and they somehow managed to
survive an amazing game from Chris Johnson when they defeated
Tennessee. Funny thing though… and I know you’re going to laugh
too. Take out that Atlanta game and opponents are averaging about
12-points per game against the 49ers. And… remove that game and
the 49ers are outscoring their opponents 2:1. Include that game…
which, you may recall, was a 35-point loss… and they are still
outscoring opponents. The Texans alternate wins and losses, and
on the year are just about lockstep in scoring per game with their
opponents. This game is either going to be close… or a 49er win.
Bob: San Francisco
Terry: Houston
Dad: Houston
Mike: San Francisco
Molly: Houston
New
York (Jets) (6½) at Oakland
– “Well, I think I should point
out first, Brian, in all fairness, we are not, in fact, the rescue
committee. However, I have been asked to read the following prepared
statement on behalf of the movement. ‘We the People’s Front of
Judea, brackets, officials, end brackets, do hereby convey our
sincere fraternal and sisterly greetings to you, Brian, on this,
the occasion of your martyrdom.’” “What?” “‘Your death will stand
as a landmark in the continuing struggle to liberate the parent
land from the hands of the Roman imperialist aggressors, excluding
those concerned with drainage, medicine, roads, housing, education,
viniculture and any other Romans contributing to the welfare of
Jews of both sexes and hermaphrodites. Signed, on behalf of the
P. F. J. , etc.’ And I’d just like to add, on a personal note,
my own admiration, for what you’re doing for us, Brian, on what
must be, after all, for you a very difficult time.”
Three weeks ago, the Jets would have been favored here by 10 or
more. Easy. But… a victory over Philadelphia for the Raiders and
a slide from the Jets… presto… down to about a touchdown. And
it is still just about a touchdown because, let’s face it, the
Jets have come back to reality a bit… but this is still the Oakland
Raiders with no passing game, no running game, and a questionable
coaching staff. The scary thing for me is the franchise… the New
York quarterback. Against the Saints and Bills, he didn’t look
so hot. Looked like a rookie. (And last week, looked like he was
convinced his teammates were wearing Buffalo uniforms.) But I
have been impressed by some things I’ve seen from the kid this
year. At least for the long term. He hasn’t been winning games…
strong defense combined with simply scoring enough points while
not making too many mistakes has… but if you check out how he
played late against Miami, or at least how he led the team, you’ll
see the Jets responded with multiple scoring drives. In summary,
Sanchez reminds me a bit of early Eli Manning… he’s making some
mistakes, and they have been getting alot of play, but he’s also
showing some good qualities. The mistakes seem correctable, and
the good qualities… well… time may prove me wrong, but I don’t
think you can teach composure and I think he has it. How will
that help this week? Well… honestly… it won’t. The question here
is simple… one thing and one thing only… can the Jets defense
show up? Oakland hasn’t scored more than 13 points since the first
game of the year. (In week one they set the season-high at 20
points.) The past 5 games… 13 points (a win… go figure), 3 points,
6, 7, and 13 again (another win). That averages out to a mind-boggling
total of just over 8-points per game. To be fair… not that they
deserve it… the Broncos, Giants and Eagles were involved… so we
aren’t talking about the weakest of defenses against the Raiders.
Heck, the Jets have scored more points in the past 3 weeks than
the Raiders have in the last 5. (And that involves 3 losses for
the Jets, and 2 wins for the Raiders.) But the Jets are only averaging
19 points a game… hardly scary. It’s really a tough call. This
is a very important game for New York. Next week they face Miami
again. A trip to New England is sitting there soon after the bye
week. Atlanta, Indianapolis and Cincinnati finish off the year…
with the Cincy game quite possibly holding a playoff berth in
it. Look, we could research things Braylon Edwards and Thomas
Jones, or how the defense continues to slow opposing offenses
down. Whatever. The end result is simple… in the past few weeks,
the Jets are becoming the 2009 scrappy team. They’re not great
in any particular way, but they keep playing and make good teams
look silly. New England and New Orleans? Neither played particularly
well against them. But they’re not designed to destroy teams.
As we saw against Miami and Buffalo, they can be beaten and cannot
overcome mistakes. (That’s the mark of a good team… not just playing
perfect, but overcoming mistakes. Against Houston, New England
and Tennessee, they really made no mistakes.) I do not expect
a big game from Sanchez, and believe this will be a close, ugly
contest. Plus, I think the Jets are going to struggle to cover
on defense with Kris Jenkins out.
Bob: Oakland
Terry: Oakland
Dad: New York
Mike: Oakland
Gus: New York
Buffalo
at Carolina (1)
– “So, yaw fatha was a Woman? Who
was he?” “He was a Centurion, in the Jerusalem Garrisons.” “Weally?
What was his name?” “Naughtius Maximus.” “Centuwion, do we have
anyone of that name in the gawwison?” “Well, no, sir.” “Well,
you sound vewy sure. Have you checked?” “Well, no, sir. Umm, I
think it’s a joke, sir. Like, uh, Sillius Soddus or Biggus Dickus,
sir.” “What’s so funny about Biggus Dickus?” “Well, it’s a joke
name, sir.” “I have a vewy gweat fwiend in Wome called Biggus
Dickus.” With exception of the Tampa Bay game,
the Buffalo offense has looked positively dreadful all season
long. Heck… the Browns beat them, in Buffalo, because they couldn’t
score 2 field goals to at least get a tie. If it weren’t for a
running game that contributed to the offense scoring 17-points
against New England (the other 7 for the Bills in that contest
were from the defense), you could look over their season with
a cardiologist next to you and find no signs of a heartbeat. (Notice
I said heartbeat and not heart. It’s other clubs that are having
troubles with the heart issue. This is just a signs of life issue.
Although… it is pretty amazing that after having the first 0-16
team last year, so many of them seem capable this year. Tampa
Bay… St. Louis… Tennessee… I could see any of them going beginning
to end without a victory. Side note though… Tennessee plays St.
Louis on December 13th. One of those clubs should get a win, but
will at least tie. Anyway…) It’s so bad in Buffalo that even our
buddy Terrell Owens isn’t complaining… because there’s nothing
interesting enough to complain about and no media to listen if
he did. (Is it just me, or does Terrell in Buffalo make sense?
What a great season it’s been without him. Again… anyway…) It’s
all bad for the Bills. So yeah… I get it… Carolina isn’t exactly
a great team. But there is zero way I can pick an offense like
Buffalo’s.
Bob: Carolina
Terry: Buffalo
Dad: Carolina
Mike: Buffalo
Molly: Carolina
New
Orleans (6½) at Miami
– “Please, please listen! I’ve got
one or two things to say.” “Tell us! Tell us both of them!” “Look,
you’ve got it all wrong! You don’t need to follow me,
You don’t need to follow anybody! You’ve got
to think for your selves! You’re all individuals!” “Yes!
We’re all individuals!” “You’re all different!” “Yes, we are
all different!” I’ve been kicking this around
a million different ways. Is the Miami offense capable of controlling
the game the way they did against Indy? No… I think that was a
one-shot deal. I do think Miami is the second best team in the
AFC East right now… and if they can defeat New York next week
they could set themselves up for 8 to 10 wins on the year. But
that ball control game against Indianapolis, with the Miami offense
scoring enough points to win if Manning wasn’t ridiculously good
with every opportunity he had, just doesn’t work as a game-after-game
plan. Any team that has cleared 10 points against the Saints this
year has given up over 40. They pounded the defense of the Eagles
and the Giants. So while Miami may very well get 25-30 points,
I can’t go against New Orleans in this one.
Bob: New Orleans
Terry: Miami
Dad: New Orleans
Mike: New Orleans
Gus: New Orleans
Atlanta
at Dallas (4)
– “Er, well, um, if you’re dropping
by again, do pop in. Heh. And thanks a lot for the gold and frankincense,
er, but don’t worry too much about the myrrh next time. All right?
Heh. Thank you. Good-bye.” Last week the Chicago
Bears thought it would be a nice idea to play hot potato with
Atlanta. It wasn’t. Falcons win, 21-14. In getting to 4 wins,
the Falcons have defeated each opponent by 7 or more. Their loss
was on the road, in New England, against a club that suddenly
seems to be hitting a stride. In short… Atlanta is a good team.
The Cowboys needed overtime to beat Kansas City, looked horrendous
at Denver, and honestly you could argue they’ve been hideous all
season, in every game, including the opener when they pounded
Tampa… Dallas is not a good team. Marion Barber hasn’t looked
like Marion Barber yet this year, and has looked like even less
since his injury a few weeks back. In fact, the Cowboys only have
victories over clubs with losing records. Let’s make the pick
and move on.
Bob: Atlanta
Terry: Dallas
Dad: Dallas
Mike: Atlanta
Molly: Atlanta
Arizona
at New York (Giants) (7)
– “All right, but apart from the
sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation,
roads, the fresh water system and public health, what have the
Romans ever done for us?” Some people want you
to believe that Arizona is starting to come to life. That after
a loss to San Francisco to start the year, and a defeat against
Indianapolis that could be attributed to losing to a better club,
they have found their rhythm in the past two weeks against Houston
and Seattle. Really? Is that really what were judging
them on? Because their victories have come over inconsistent clubs…
and their losses have come to division leaders. They win over
bad and lose to good. That seems more reasonable to me. Point
number one… I’m not expecting Arizona to win this game. New York
got pasted by New Orleans last week in a game that MVP candidate
Drew Brees controlled with a dazzling display of how to run a
strong offense. Point number two… I think New York is looking
to hit someone, and hit them hard, and I don’t think the Cardinals
are as good as the Saints. So the real question in this contest
becomes the point spread and how we think the New York offense
will do against the Arizona defense. Ahh… and that is a good question.
Because except for Indianapolis, Arizona has been fairly good
at keeping the score down. The problem is, the Giants have scored
a minimum of 23-points in every game this year. And I
expect that they’ll win and win comfortably here.
Bob: New York
Terry: New York
Dad: New York
Mike: New York
Gus: Arizona
Philadelphia
(7) at Washington
– “You know what they say: some
things in life are bad. They can really make you mad. Other things
just make you swear and curse. When you’re chewing on life’s gristle,
don’t grumble; give a whistle, and this’ll help things turn out
for the best. And… always look on the bright side of life…”
Finally… someone seems to have the spread against the Redskins
figured out. (Of course, imagine what the spread would have been
if Philly did to Oakland what we all expected them to do to Oakland.)
This is the first game Washington has played against a team with
a win. That is not a misprint. No team has had so much as a single
victory this season when it took the field to play Washington
until this week. And the Redskins have responded with a 2-4 record
against that group. Their high total for points scored is 17…
and one of the wins was a 9-7 victory over St. Louis. Does anyone
think Philly is going to arrive in Washington with a casual, take-them-for-granted
approach after what happened last week? Well… then we need to
go no further. If we expect Philly to score over 20-points while
playing incredibly mad… and we expect that the Washington cheerleaders
could probably outscore the Washington offense, while at the same
time the Washington coaching staff is in a freefall… then picking
this contest can only involve one decision.
Bob: Philadelphia
Terry: Washington
Dad: Philadelphia
Mike: Philadelphia
Molly: Philadelphia
~ ~
~ ~ ~
Dad
– Last week 8-6, season 48-41-1
Bob – Last week 6-8, season 47-42-1
Mike – Last week 5-9, season 44-45-1
The Dogs – Last week 9-5, season 40-49-1
Terry – Last week 7-7, season 37-52-1