For
most of the teams, a quarter of the season is done. For those
that had last week off, they’ll cross that marker this weekend.
We’ve
seen some teams… Tennessee comes to mind… show that they were
likely way overrated in our preseason opinion polls. Others… let’s
give some love to the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets… have been solid
enough (at least defensively) to earn some respect and playoff
consideration that few expected to be possible back in June, July
and August.
And
a few teams… hello Dallas and Green Bay as our examples… have
been rather blah, and we probably could have expected them to
be rather blah, but gosh darn it, it’s so much fun to have them
in the mix when discussing the very good instead of languishing
with the positively average and not worth much attention.
The
reality is, we have a bit of an understanding about the clubs
now. It’s not a perfect science mind you… but we have confirmed
that San Diego has no focus (which I told you weeks ago… even
before the season) and Oakland can’t run (which is funny, or sad
depending on your point of view, because we’ve found out they
can’t pass either). These and other secrets are there to be found.
And… of course… rarely trusted. Because guaranteed there are other
unexpected explosions out there just waiting for us, like the
one Miami unleashed on Buffalo last week.
Anyway...
Mike,
Dad and I come our of week 4 with winning records and only a few
games separating first from third.
Molly
delivered a stellar effort last week, moving herself above .500
for the year and keeping the dogs respectable. (Gus had been doing
quite well… my guess is he had his mind on a vet appointment that
just took place and not completely on his picks. But he’s been
his usual royal pain this week and I’m looking for good things
from him.)
And
Terry… well… she’s struggling. In fairness, after silencing Mike
and I with her dominance last year, she can be forgiven for the
tough times so far in 2009. But I’m not giving up on her. Why?
Because we’re creeping in to the time where weird spreads appear.
Things get posted to keep the betting even on both sides… or strange
things get posted with no apparent sound reason at all other than
to confuse us. And such a time is tailor made for her. Oh yes…
I kid you not… tailor made. She doesn’t care about spreads… she
just picks on instinct. And there are landmines all over this
week’s odds.
Take
a look at the huge spreads in some games. The Giants by 16? Interesting…
especially considering they haven’t scored more than 33 points
all year, and in beating the Bucs and Chiefs were dealing with
two teams that would have a hard time scoring on offense if they
played 11 on 7.
And
then there’s Pittsburgh by 10½… or Philly by 14½…
where it’s bad enough that the spread is big, but to add insult
to it they tack on the ½-point so that even if these teams
do win by 2 scores, you’ll still lose.
So
let’s review two quick things that I do with every game. And as
an introduction… my Hall of Fame criteria (at a glance).
The
first thing I consider about whether or not a player should be
in the Hall of Fame for his sport is simple… was he (or she) a
Hall of Famer? No criteria… no investigation… and actually, no
thought. Tom Brady… yes. No need to even look it up on him. Byron
Leftwich… are you kidding? No need to even look it up on him.
See? Two answers. No research.
The
thing is, the majority of players you would consider don’t fit
into that quick answer mold. (Well… most of the no-chance, Byron
Leftwich types do. But there are few no doubt about it, put him
in players to think about.) What I’m getting at is… granted it’s
only in a few cases… there are times when there’s no need to debate
the simple answers. If you are convinced something is true… your
gut instinct tells you it’s true, and on the surface there isn’t
a single thing to tell you not to trust your instincts… then you
probably should stop. Stop right there. Because chances are, yellow
and quacking, it’s a duck.
For
football picks, my approach begins there and hits these concepts…
First
~ Do I think the underdog can win the game? (Read: Never jump
into a pick because you think a team will cover. If you
don’t think they can’t win, that should be a huge warning you
think something is wrong. Don’t bet on them. Doesn’t work too
well when you’re picking every game and have to turn something
in, but the idea is sound when it comes to your wallet.)
Second
~ After step one… who do I think will win the game, and do those
setting the odds agree? (Read: Hold on… why does that spread seem
so wrong to me? For example, check out Indianapolis below. Only
3½ points over Tennessee? That spread is standing on a
mountain top, next to brightly illuminated neon signs, screaming
“This can’t be true” at you. What do those setting the spreads
know that I don’t about this game? They had to put the Giants
at 16 points to get people to bet on the Raiders. After what the
Titans have delivered this year they figure 3½ against
Indy is accurate? Oh… I’ll give you a pick when you get to that
game… but everything about it should read “Warning… Warning… stay
far, far away from this game with your actual money”… and, you
should.)
After
that, the rest… the majority… becomes homework. And, unfortunately,
many times just a twist of fate or two. The reality is, going
slightly under .500 against the spread is good. Picking winners
is easy… the spread will nail you every time. Reminds me of blackjack…
know when to get more money on the table, and know when to walk
away.
So…
recap… do I think they picked the right favorite?... do I think
the underdog has a shot?... and is the spread about where it needs
to be for me to think about it? Those are the tips found in the
two initial, quick observations. After that… get started on your
research.
For
the quotes this week, we turn to the original Beverly Hills
Cop. (Some of the best work Eddie Murphy ever offered.)
Minnesota
(10) at St. Louis – “All
he asked me to do was drive you out of town. Now I’m gonna screw
that up, too.” The Rams are just a brutal team.
They’ve scored 24 points overall, have scored over 7 points just
once, and have been shut out twice. Now… in their defense… the
shut outs were on the road, three of the first four were on the
road, and their highest scoring effort came at home. (On the other
hand… they still lost that home game to Green Bay, 36-17. Yeah,
they suck.) I also think some consideration needs to be given
to an incredibly emotional victory last week for Minnesota. The
Vikings played the Packers in one of the most draining of contests
they’ll face all year (second only, possibly, to the second game
against the Packers later on). And now have a short week to recover.
Worth noting. Still… Vikings averaging about 30 points a game
and the Rams averaging 8. This one, even with a tough spread,
isn’t hard to pick.
Bob: Minnesota
Terry: St. Louis
Mike: Minnesota
Dad: Minnesota
Molly: Minnesota
Dallas
(9) at Kansas City – “Disturbing
the peace? I got thrown out of a window! What’s the f**king charge
for getting pushed out of a moving car, huh? Jaywalking?”
Here’s why you need to eliminate emotions. (And also why you need
to eliminate thoughts based on common sense.) First, the Chiefs
made a valiant late run at the Giants last week, which should
make you wonder about them being 9-point underdogs. After all,
aren’t the Giants better than the Cowboys? And second, Dallas
comes in here facing a real must win situation. (In all fairness,
considering the lack of anything close to good we’ve seen this
year, the Cowboys honestly need to dominate to be taken seriously
in the future.) But… opening a new stadium… on the road against
a supposedly weak though undefeated Denver… Dallas has shown diddly-squat.
Still… desperation factor. In short, I could see someone not doing
their homework and making a case for either side in this one.
Here’s something interesting… well, two somethings interesting.
Who was the leading rusher for Dallas against Denver? Sure… Marion
Barber. Did you know he did that with just 41-yards? (I know…
he was hurting. Whatever. Keep that in mind when I start discussing
New England at Denver in a minute.) And, how many wide receivers
caught a pass for Dallas last week? The answer is 9… nine… NINE.
Now I’m all for spreading the ball around. But Orton completed
passes to 7 guys and only 4 of them caught 3 or more. Romo was
throwing the ball all over the place but not scoring. The reality
is simple… if Dallas gets better production from Barber (likely),
and focuses their offensive game plan on less targets (heck, I
say likely if for no other reason than Romo’s turnover troubles
that need to be addressed… which included a pick and a lost fumble
against the Broncos), they should win this game by 10 or more.
Because of that… I’ll pick them. But… I’m not comfortable with
the pick here. Not at all.
Bob: Dallas
Terry: Dallas
Mike: Kansas City
Dad: Dallas
Gus: Dallas
Washington
at Carolina (3½) – “I
remember you used to drive that crappy blue Chevy Nova. What are
you driving now?” “Same crappy blue Chevy Nova.”
So this is where they decide not to favor the Redskins? After
two weeks of just plain silly spreads in their favor, the 0-3
Panthers get the nod at home over them? Wonderful. In defense
of the spread, Washington can’t get out of their own way… 17 points,
9, 14, 16… and yet they’ve got 2 victories. Amazing. So the reality
is… if you want to make a case for them… you have to believe that
the game will be a low scoring contest, something like 17-14,
or 14-13. I know Jake Delhomme has been bad this year… heck, funny
story time. Remember I made fun of Romo for going in to Denver
and throwing the ball to 9 wide receivers, 3 cheerleaders, 1 hot
dog guy, and a kid wearing his jersey in section 113? Would you
believe Delhomme has completed passes to just 8 guys total in
the three games Carolina has played? Ok… maybe you would. What
decides it for me is this… Carolina can play much, much better
than we’ve seen so far. No doubt about it. Now check out Jason
Campbell’s stats… because there is no way to believe he could
play much better for Washington, and they aren’t scoring at all.
I think the Panthers are going to take out some frustrations this
week and whoop up on the Redskins.
Bob: Carolina
Terry: Washington
Mike: Washington
Dad: Carolina
Molly: Washington
Tampa
Bay at Philadelphia (14½)
– “Don’t you think I realize what’s
going on here, miss? Who do you think I am, huh? Don’t you think
I know that if I was some hotshot from out of town that pulled
inside here and you guys made a reservation mistake, I’d be the
first one to get a room and I’d be upstairs relaxing right now.
But I’m not some hotshot from out of town, I’m a small reporter
from Rolling Stone magazine that’s in town to do an exclusive
interview with Michael Jackson that’s gonna be picked up by every
major magazine in the country. I was gonna call the article ‘Michael
Jackson Is Sitting On Top of the World,’ but now I think I might
as well just call it ‘Michael Jackson Can Sit On Top of the World
Just As Long As He Doesn’t Sit in the Beverly Palm Hotel…’”
No one wants to give the Bucs respect… and I can’t say they deserve
any. Philly has 2 victories, and both times they faced obviously
inferior opponents and crushed them. Their loss came against New
Orleans. Kevin Kolb has done a pretty good job overall. On the
other side, in their four games, the only time Tampa has been
close was against the inept Washington team. Ahh… but hold on.
Last week Josh Johnson was leading Tampa’s offense. He wasn’t
great… but all things considered… well, all things considered,
he was worse than Leftwich overall and he still lost the game.
But he is young, did show improvement over his effort the week
before when they played the Giants, and the Cadillac (Williams)
has had two good games. I’m going against my own advice here…
because I don’t think Tampa can win… but I think they can battle
the Eagles.
Bob: Tampa Bay
Terry: Tampa Bay
Mike: Tampa Bay
Dad: Philadelphia
Gus: Tampa Bay
Oakland
at New York (Giants) (16)
– “You got some kind of warrant
for this?” “You know, you have a very big mouth, sir! Are you
hiding something from me? Is that what you’re doing? I bet you
that’s your Porsche that’s parked outside, isn’t it? Isn’t that
your Porsche? Is it? How would you like me to have the IRS come
down here and crawl up your f**king a** with a microscope? ‘Cause
they’ll do it! I’ve seen them do it! It’s not a pretty sight!
I want you to know something, pal! And I want all of y’all to
know something! I can have twenty-five agents down here in fifteen
minutes to march in here, snatch your bond from underneath you
and you guys’ll be out of business, permanently, if I don’t get
some cooperation! Is that understood?” “Don’t get upset inspector!
We’ll give you everything you need! Right, guys?” “Everything
you need!” “That’s not my Porsche, no sir! I don’t know whose
it is!” Tough… tough… tough position… and I’m
going to go with the Giants anyway. I don’t know if they can blow
the doors off the Raiders without a healthy Manning. What I do
know is that the Raiders can’t pass worth crap, so everyone is
stacking up against them and destroying their chances at running,
and the Giants defense is going to maul them.
Bob: New York
Terry: Oakland
Mike: New York
Dad: New York
Molly: Oakland
Cleveland
at Buffalo (6) – “I
see you look at this piece.” “Yeah. I was wondering how much something
like this went for.” “One hundred and thirty thousand dollar.”
“Get the f**k out of here!” “No, I cannot! It’s serious! Because
it’s very important piece.” “Have you ever sold one of these?”
“Sell it yesterday to a collector.” “Get the f**k out of here!”
“No! I’m serious! I sell it myself!” If you would
like to quarterback an NFL team, please send your name, address,
uniform size, a day-time telephone number, and a self-addressed
9½” x 11” envelope with appropriate postage for a 30-page
playbook to: Cleveland Browns, 76 Lou Groza Boulevard, Berea,
Ohio, 44017. Ok… jokes aside… what the hell was that Buffalo offered
last week? What a stink bomb. The Bills want to be taken seriously
and they get demolished by Miami? …Miami without Chad? I can’t
do it. I can’t. Maybe they figure out that it actually is legal
to throw the ball… maybe they figure out they have wide receivers
on their roster… and maybe they win 38-6. But until Buffalo actually
does it, even against a Cleveland team that has now officially
traded all the wide receivers on their roster… I can’t.
Bob: Cleveland
Terry: Buffalo
Mike: Buffalo
Dad: Buffalo
Gus: Cleveland
Cincinnati
at Baltimore (8½) – “Why
didn’t you identify yourself as a police officer when you were
arrested?” “‘Cause I was mindin’ my own business. Hey, where the
f**k do you guys get off on arresting somebody for getting thrown
out of a window?” “We have six witnesses that say you broke in
and started tearing up the place, then jumped out the window!”
“And you guys believe that?” Hmm… so the Bungals
are a funny play away from undefeated. (And some late game heroics…
if not overtime thrills if you want to be specific… away from
2 additional losses and a losing record.) But the facts are simple:
they’ve competed in every game, shown some offensive resilience
the past two weeks, and they’ve managed to shut down offenses
that are doing plenty against other clubs. Call me crazy, but
I think they’ve got a chance to win this one. And if they don’t
win it, I just don’t see them losing by more than 4 to 7 points.
Bob: Cincinnati
Terry: Cincinnati
Mike: Baltimore
Dad: Baltimore
Molly: Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
(10½) at Detroit
– “Is this the gentleman who crashed
through Victor Maitland’s window? Who disabled an unmarked unit
with a banana?” “Yes, sir.” “Who lured Taggart and Rosemont into
a gross dereliction of duty at a strip-tease establishment?” “Uh,
it’s Rosewood, sir.” “Yes, sir.” “Is this the gentleman who ruined
the buffet at the Harrow club this morning” “Yes, sir.” “I just
bet that you are the pride of your department in Detroit.”
I got a bit carried away by the Lions. Picked them one too many
times after the Redskins game seemed so obvious. Fact is, there
is no way they win this game… so I have to take Pittsburgh. That
said… did you see how fast the Steelers folded up camp last week?
They had that game against San Diego under the tree, ribbon in
place, finished… and then almost handed it right back. Wow. (And
I’d still feel better picking this one if Pittsburgh was at home.)
Bob: Pittsburgh
Terry: Detroit
Mike: Pittsburgh
Dad: Pittsburgh
Gus: Pittsburgh
Atlanta
at San Francisco (2½)
– “What’s this man doing here?”
“Bleeding, sir.” Frank Gore playing would make
this an easier selection. I really do think these two teams are
fairly evenly matched to be honest. But the truth is that this
isn’t the San Francisco team we’ve grown accustomed to making
fun of. They play hard, don’t make mistakes or turn the ball over,
and keep going from beginning to end. Not easy for an opponent
to play against. Atlanta hasn’t exactly been a machine on offense
this year… forgive them for struggling against New England, but
19 over Miami and 28 over Carolina is hardly the stuff of legends.
The 49ers only loss this year came at the hands of a Favre miracle.
The thing is… both of these clubs have similar formulas for victory…
don’t turn the ball over, be as effective as possible on special
teams because every yard and every point matters, and keep any
mistakes to a minimum. Going back to the end of last season, I’m
convinced San Francisco does that better.
Bob: San Francisco
Terry: San Francisco
Mike: San Francisco
Dad: Atlanta
Molly: San Francisco
New
England (3) at Denver
– “Hey man what’s happenin’ Phil.
I new that was you, he told me that wasn’t you, said you don’t
come here no more. But I said it’s Phil! That is Philip. I told
you that’s Phil, you liar!” Denver has played
much better defensively than I think anyone ever could
have predicted. Beyond that… well… (1) The Patriots dismantled
the Broncos last season. (2) The Denver offense isn’t exactly
showing signs of threatening anyone. (3) New England is looking
better each week, especially on defense. Do you want me to do
the work when I know the answer? Because New England wins this
one easy.
Bob: New England
Terry: New England
Mike: New England
Dad: New England
Gus: New England
Houston
at Arizona (5½) – “Don’t
you wanna hear my side of the story?” “What’s your f**king side
of the story?” “Let’s hear your side of the story.” “Hey Axel,
I’m not taking anymore of this s**t from you. You know how much
this little stunt of yours is gonna cost this city?” “I don’t
think cost is the issue here, sir. I think the issue should be
my blatant disregard for proper procedure.” I
don’t know who to believe here… or who to listen to. Arizona comes
into this game 1-2 and is in danger of losing all sight of the
division lead. They have a solid victory over Jacksonville, but
are 0-2 at home, having lost to San Francisco and Indianapolis.
I also can’t say we’ve seen signs of good things to come. Ahh…
Houston. Humiliated by the Jets in the opener, they traveled to
take out Tennessee, and last week trounced the Raiders. Two deciding
factors for me… (1) I still can’t believe the Texans beat the
Titans after the performance Chris Johnson delivered that day.
When one player turns in about 200 yards rushing, almost 100 yards
receiving, and 3 touchdowns against you… and you still win… not
bad. (2) Arizona has been inconsistent and has had troubles putting
points on the board, but Houston is scoring each week.
Bob: Houston
Terry: Arizona
Mike: Arizona
Dad: Arizona
Molly: Houston
Jacksonville
at Seattle (Pick – no line available)
– “You’re not gonna fall for the
banana in the tailpipe? It should be more natural, brother. It
should flow out, like this – ‘Look, man, I ain’t fallin’ for no
banana in my tailpipe!’ See, that’s more natural for us. You been
hanging out with this dude too long.” I wish I
had a better gauge of what Seattle has to offer. They’ve lost
three straight, and haven’t looked good… but Seattle, Chicago
and Indianapolis aren’t exactly three teams letting people look
good in 2009. Yeah… the Jaguars are the weakest opponent the Seahawks
have seen in a month. On the other side, Jacksonville has been
on target the past two weeks. Maurice Jones-Drew has been active,
and David Garrard is once again showing signs of being a decent
quarterback. (Do Garrard and Jake Delhomme have one set of skills
that they share and just mail back and forth? Might be worth looking
into.) Too many questions about Seattle for me to be comfortable
with them. Every opponent has scored more than 20-points against
them so far. I expect that to continue.
Bob: Jacksonville
Terry: Seattle
Mike: Jacksonville
Dad: Seattle
Gus: Jacksonville
Indianapolis
(3½) at Tennessee
– “Todd’s looking for you. He is
really pissed. You know what he said? This is your worst f**k
up ever. Personally, I don’t think that’s true.”
I can’t explain this at all. You could have favored Indy by 10
and I wouldn’t have blinked. The Titans had a massive day from
Johnson the day they scored 31 points. (I kidded about it above,
but here are his actual stats from that Houston game… 197 rushing
yards with 2 touchdowns, 87 receiving yards with 1 touchdown.)
Other than that, the Titans have done nothing all year. Their
offense can’t move the ball, and their defense has trouble stopping
it. If the Colts had a wishy-washy club, maybe you could write
off some tough opposition as the cause and find a reason to take
them. Yeah… except that the Colts haven’t been wishy-washy and
might just be the toughest opponent yet for Tennessee. I’m serious…
something is very, very wrong here. Someone knows something, because
they are doing everything in their power to get all of us to take
Indianapolis. That means trouble. Darn it though… with a 4-0 Colts
team that has an offense cranking full throttle right now… I can’t
just take a chance on a hunch. I’m not cleaning out a fridge with
stuff that smells bad. So allow me to pinch my nose and make my
selection…
Bob: Indianapolis
Terry: Tennessee
Mike: Indianapolis
Dad: Indianapolis
Molly: Tennessee
New
York (Jets) (1½) at Miami
– “Before I go, I just want you
two to know something, alright? The supercop story was working.
Okay? It was working, and you guys just messed it up. Okay? I’m
trying to figure you guys out, but I haven’t yet. But it’s cool.”
These games tend to offer a ton of surprises. They’re close when
they shouldn’t be, and when you expect a true battle they toss
in rout (just to keep us honest and on the edge of our seats for
the next time). Mostly… they’re close. The thing is… I still don’t
know how the Dolphins pounded the Bills last week. (Ok… that’s
not completely true. I do know. They got 200 combined yards rushing
from Williams and Brown. They asked Henne to do nothing except
control the game, and he responded with a nifty 115 yards off
of 22 attempts and 14 completions, while adding an unexpected
touchdown pass. And then the defense just made Buffalo’s offense
look silly. That’s how it happened.) Here though, I don’t expect
Miami to be able to run as successfully in this game. (Even if
the Dolphins defense makes New York’s offense look silly.) In
fact, I doubt if either team will break 17 points. I’m fully expecting
a 10-7 or 14-9 final score from this contest. The way the teams
are playing though… last week’s victory by New Orleans over New
York may have been the worst thing to happen to Miami this week.
Because I think the Jets will take that as a wake up call and
figure out how to win this contest.
Bob: New York
Terry: Miami
Mike: New York
Dad: New York
Gus: New York
~ ~
~ ~ ~
Bob
– Last week 9-5, season 36-25-1
Dad – Last week 9-5, season 33-28-1
Mike – Last week 9-5, season 33-28-1
The Dogs – Last week 5-9, season 27-34-1
Terry – Last week 6-8, season 24-37-1