The 2009 NFL Picks
The 2009 NFL playoffs… week three


The Dogs have the wrapping paper on the boxes… and they’re picking out ribbons. Another amazing week from them… 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 in their view of the entire playoffs from the start.

In picking the games from beginning to end, the Dogs got Indianapolis, New York and Minnesota correct. Their only loss was a prediction of Philadelphia defeating New Orleans. (For the second week in a row, Philly cost them a perfect string.) The trick is… they have the Jets going to the Super Bowl… and the Eagles winning it. So they only have one more possible victory to add.

If the Jets make it to the Super Bowl… the Dogs win. If Indy wins the Super Bowl… the Dogs win. If the Colts go to the Super Bowl and the NFC team wins, the Dogs can be tied by Mike or Dad.

The pair also went 3-1 last week against the spread. Their only loss was taking San Diego to win and cover. That gives them a 2-game lead with 3 to play.

Here’s a quick review of what we all picked for this week when we made our predictions for the entire playoffs…

Game Bob Terry Dad Mike Dogs
AFC San Diego New England San Diego San Diego New York (M)
NFC New Orleans Green Bay Minnesota New Orleans Philadelphia (G)

And here are my thoughts on this week’s games…

New York (Jets) at Indianapolis (7½) – For me, this is an amazingly interesting game for what should on the field be such a boring game. I mean… this seems like an easy one. Indinapolis in a laugher. How can you predict anything else? And yet… even with such an easy ending to see coming… there is so much involved. First… for the conspiracy theorists… the NFL doesn’t want a team that only made the playoffs because two teams tanked to get a spot in the Super Bowl. So New York loses with the calls going against them any time one can be made that doesn’t seem too obvious. (Oh but wait… the NFL doesn’t want to reward a team that would do something so idiotic as pull their players off of a dry, indoor field and forfeit a game, only to play the very next week in a truly meaningless fiasco. So really? Are we saying that? Are we saying the league and the referees will be lined up against the Jets? Couldn’t it work both ways on this one? Heck… push the conspiracy further. Maybe the NFL wanted Indianapolis to lose to New York in week 16 so that the New York market would have a playoff team and Indy was set up to lose. How about that? Ok… back to Indy being an easy winner in this one…) Second… the Jets beat the Colts during the regular season, which likely has the Indianapolis starters salivating for this contest. And third… well… the reality is, we could go on with stuff like this for quite some time, except that nothing about the Jets being in this game makes sense at all. As I mentioned in that first idea about not wanting a team that was handed the playoffs to get the ultimate reward… after benching the starters against the Jets, those Colt starters appeared on the field the next week against the Bills. Is Indy a club the NFL wants to be rewarding with a victory here? Probably not… but geez. Let’s face it… the Chargers screwed it all up. They were supposed to knock out both of these clubs so neither one made it to the big dance. Let’s check out a few other things. I happen to like the Jets special teams group here… and their defense. (We’ll get to the defense in a second though… because unfortunately, they have to face Indy’s offense.) Jay Feeley may be the best kicker remaining in the playoffs at this point. And let’s not forget… Indy wasn’t running away from New York in that game with their starters on the field. Ok… you see what I’m doing… I’m trying to make some sort of case that this is an even playing field. (My words) “Oh look, New York has a defense and a kicker”… “There’s no reason the league could support Indianapolis”… “Norv Turner sucks”… blah-blah-blah. The ending of this section is simple to see coming… as simple as knowing Indy will win. And in that ending, I’m going to take the Jets. And I’m taking them because no sane, reasonable person putting money on the line should. There is nothing to look at here that says New York could, should or can win. They could win… but likely won’t. At some point, Indianapolis is going to go on a two or three score swing. (Minimum two… minimum 10 points… without New York scoring.) I’m guessing most likely it’s going to be a 17-21 point stretch and last three scores. Might be a touchdown followed by a couple of three-and-outs turned in by their defense… might be a turnover or two. But at some point the Colts scoring and then scoring again is going to happen. And when it does… well… reality time. Could the Jets win? Yes. But there had better never be a point in this game when the franchise rookie has to win it. If he has to throw… if he’s being forced to make a play… then the Colts suddenly become a strong defense. Once they know it’s third and 8 and he’s passing… or it’s 24-10 with five or six minutes to go… game over. Book the plane tickets. Because not only will the Jets have troubles with their lovely quarterback being forced to win it, but as I’ve noted before, they kick a ton of field goals. Check out their record and look at all those games that finished with scores within 3… 4… 5 points. While I won’t say they can’t score 3 instead of 7 and win this… what I will say is that any time they cross the 50-yard line they had better put points on the board. Feeley… see, I mentioned him a moment ago… had better not miss. I’m going to take that rookie to have a solid, but heavily controlled game.
Bob: New York
Terry: New York
Dad: Indianapolis
Mike: Indianapolis
Gus: Indianapolis

Minnesota at New Orleans (4½) – I will say something amazing right now, because if you have read this web site, you’ve seen me yawn and say I’m bored with the will-he-won’t-he Favre saga every year. I’d prefer he commits, quickly and without a dance, to a return of any kind. These past few years, I truly believe he has hurt teams like the Packers and the Jets with this dance. So, ready for amazing? Here it is… I want him to come back for one more year. This Vikings team is fun to watch. Strong, emotional defense. Potentially lethal, balanced offense. And yet I think if Favre leaves it, the whole thing will suffer. You know all those times you hear about how a veteran brings along a presence? Most of the time, that’s crap. The veteran doesn’t want to help the guy set to eventually replace him. It’s amazingly rare for that idea to work, no matter how many times we get told it’s happening. But watching Minnesota play, you can see a level of excitement that is swirling around Favre. Ok… that said… this game. See Brett. See Brett lose. See Brett fumble. See Brett throw interceptions. See Saints win. Last week I told you I could see Romo or Favre losing the game by playing horribly or turning the ball over late. I picked Minnesota to win. Picked Romo to fall apart. This week, I sort of expect a close, high scoring contest, with Favre having a chance to win it late… but he turns it over and the Saints take the victory. Let’s say 38-34 or something like that. Given the emotion that is likely to be New Orleans and the dome for this one… I could see the Saints winning big and people talking about multiple Favre turnovers. What I expect though is at least one huge mistake.
Bob: New Orleans
Terry: New Orleans
Dad: Minnesota
Mike: New Orleans
Molly: New Orleans

If you have any comments or questions, please e-mail me at