I
could kick this off by talking about how we have repeats of last
week slated for the first round of the playoffs. But you know
that… the exception is New England hosting Baltimore (and these
two teams danced earlier this season). The remaining three games
feature six teams that faced each other last week… only the location
of New York and Cincy will be different.
But
you know all about that.
Instead…
for an appetizer… let’s go over here…
Congratulations
to Mike.
It
was an amazing finish.
Really.
After
the first week, first place and third place were separated by
5 games. Once results were coming in for week two, that difference
shrunk and it would never be that large again. Mike, Dad and I
flip-flopped places in some fashion week after week. Heck… if
we had gone two or more weeks longer, the Dogs could have grabbed
the lead. It was well played and very close.
Mike
was two games out of the lead entering the final 16 selections.
He erased that deficit with the 1 o’clock games. As the second
wave began, there was a 3-way tie at the top. Dad and I had the
same picks for the remaining games. No way to separate us. But
Mike saw two games differently. He’d need to sweep them to take
a lead and hold it.
He
did.
And
in the very last game of the year, the New York Jets (J-E-T-S…
Jets… Jets… Jets…) sealed the deal for him to win the regular
season crown for picking against the spread in 2009.
Well
done Mike. Well done.
A
big tip of the cap to the Dogs. 7-8-1 for the final week left
them at 126-126-4 for the year. And as much fun as we have had,
and as proud as all three of use are for picking over .500, consider…
two dogs, picking for biscuits, finished a 256 game slate with
an even record and just 5 games out of first place. (And Molly
turned in the best winning percentage of the year. She was at
51.5% for the season in her selections… Mike finished up at 51.1%.)
Even
Terry… look… her 114-138-4 record doesn’t look impressive on the
surface. But last year she nailed 142 selections correctly. That’s
more than 55% correct, and the best record ever at In My Backpack
for a season of selections against the spread. When you add in
her 114 this year, combine the records Mike and I had for both
years, she is still running in first place for her time picking
the games with us.
Here
are the final 2009 regular season standings…
Mike – last week 10-5-1, overall 131-121-4
Dad – last week 7-8-1, overall 129-123-4
Bob – last week 6-9-1, overall 129-123-4
The Dogs – last week 7-8-1, overall 126-126-4
Terry – last week 7-8-1, overall 114-138-4
Molly
– last week 3-5, overall 66-60-2
Gus – last week 4-3-1, overall 60-66-2
And
for those of you wondering, two years of records…
Terry
– 256-248-8
Mike – 252-252-8
Bob – 247-257-8
The
playoffs work two ways here… First, we pick from beginning to
end. Second, we pick weekly against the spread. So below, you’ve
got an analysis from me on this week’s four games, along with
our predictions.
To
kick off the selections, let’s take a look at how we see the full
playoffs developing. For that I’m just going to give you a simple
chart. Since the actual games depend on how the seeds advance
(which would involve way too many notes), you’ll see I’ve indicated
the first four games essentially as they look with the teams involved,
followed it with a conference identification and location of the
game for the next four, then two conference championship games
and, ultimately, the Super Bowl. After this week I’ll break down
what match-ups we all created in each of the playoff columns.
(A quick word on the dogs… their selections will flip-flop on
which dog picks the spread and which one picks it outright, and
both dogs will make one of the picks for each game. As an example,
Molly is picking first with the Baltimore – New England game in
the beginning-to-end section, and she also gets the Super Bowl
for them. Gus will pick Baltimore – New England against the spread
this week, and ultimately will make their Super Bowl pick for
that.)
| Game |
Bob |
Terry |
Dad |
Mike |
Dogs |
| Balt
- New Eng |
Baltimore |
New
England |
New
England |
New
England |
Baltimore
(M) |
| NY
- Cincy |
Cincinnati |
New
York |
Cincinnati |
New
York |
New
York (G) |
| GB
- Ariz |
Green
Bay |
Green
Bay |
Green
Bay |
Green
Bay |
Arizona
(M) |
| Phil
- Dal |
Philadelphia |
Philadelphia |
Dallas |
Dallas |
Philadelphia
(G) |
| AFC
- at Indy |
Baltimore |
New
York |
Indianapolis |
Indianapolis |
Indianapolis
(M) |
| AFC
- at SD |
San
Diego |
New
England |
San
Diego |
San
Diego |
New
York (G) |
| NFC
- at New Orl |
New
Orleans |
Philadelphia |
New
Orleans |
New
Orleans |
Philadelphia
(M) |
| NFC
- at Minn |
Minnesota |
Green
Bay |
Minnesota |
Dallas |
Minnesota
(G) |
| AFC |
San
Diego |
New
England |
San
Diego |
San
Diego |
New
York (M) |
| NFC |
New
Orleans |
Green
Bay |
Minnesota |
New
Orleans |
Philadelphia
(G) |
| Super
Bowl |
New
Orleans |
New
England |
Minnesota |
New
Orleans |
Philadelphia
(M) |
All
right… there you have it… and now for this week…
Baltimore
at New England (3½)
– It’s funny, but I think three of the four of the places in the
conference championships are already wrapped up. That’s obviously
just my opinion… and plenty of people will mention all sorts of
reasons why the other 9 teams all have a shot. I don’t see it.
I think New Orleans, Minnesota and San Diego will be standing
after the second round of games… regardless of what team they
face next week. I know many people are claiming New Orleans tripped
at the end, and that certainly should be considered. But watching
that game against Dallas, I simply think the homes games are going
to be emotionally charged beyond belief for New Orleans… and the
crowd is going to play a huge part in turning the tide in favor
of the Saints. I also could agree that the combination of defense
and running in Baltimore should be considered, or the ability
of Green Bay when playing well. Got it. Still, the only thing
I feel comfortable in saying about the top four seeds is that
I firmly believe Indianapolis will lose. And… regardless of how
things shake out in round one… the other three will protect home
field and win. Might not happen. Manning is great. But I felt
strongly about it weeks ago… felt more strongly they would open
with a loss as talk of perfection swirled and built around them…
and a few weeks ago even said they would be 14-2 as they prepared
to lose their first playoff game. I’m sticking with that. And
there is a reason they play the games. Anyway… what does any of
that have to do with this game? Out of the remaining teams there
is one… and only one… that I think could compete with the elite
to upset the applecart. New England. But… I think the timing of
this game, along with the incredible good fortune created by the
seeding, is going to allow another team the opportunity to become
a factor. Not an applecart-upsetting factor. But a factor, that
if they were anything but the sixth seed, wouldn’t be available
to them. Long story short… Baltimore wins this week, and then
they get to play Indianapolis. You know how I feel about the Colts.
And I honestly believe either of these clubs would defeat Indy…
and as the sixth seed, only the Ravens would get that chance.
Now, I also mentioned the timing of the game. I would love to
see New England win this game. If they do, they might be able
to get on a roll. Heck… stranger things have happened for teams
that didn’t have the greatest quarterback ever to play the game
leading the way with one of the greatest receivers ever to play
the game taking the field along with a defense that isn’t special
but is definitely underrated. The Patriots are a talented club
that, when healthy, match up with any other team in the NFL. I’ll
be cheering and screaming for them to win. But I think Ray Rice
is going to ultimately decide this game. And with Wes Welker out
(there’s the timing part)… New England having been inconsistent
most of the year (even though the record says they have been good
at home)… and a few other questions… Rice becomes the best player
on the field. Good enough for a close win. 24-20, Baltimore.
Bob: Baltimore
Terry: New England
Dad: New England
Mike: New England
Gus: Baltimore
New
York (Jets) at Cincinnati (2½)
– This is the one game where I actually looked at the spread and
shook my head, wondering if I should change things. Ready for
this? First, the Bengals scored 14 more points than they gave
up over the course of the season. That averages out to less than
a point per game. Next, out of the 16 games they played, 5 of
them were decided by 3 points and another 2 were decided by 5
or less. That means a third of their games could have swung either
way based basically on a missed or made field goal… and definitely
by a touchdown. Now… third, and moving to the Jets… of their 7
losses, 3 were by 3 or less points, and 5 of them by less than
5 points. I’ve examined this before… the Jets kick alot of field
goals. For a team with such a great running attack, I honestly
believe they have a hard time finding the end zone. Overall… that
leaves me with these conclusions… (1) When New York wins, overall
you could say they do it convincingly. (Not a single one of their
9 victories came by under 6 points). (2) When they lose, often
it is a close game. (3) The Bengals seem to find themselves in
alot of close games. My expectations for this contest is that
neither teams crosses the 20-point mark. And, in the final five
minutes, the Jets will have the ball, trailing by less than a
touchdown. After that, I almost have to throw my hands up. What
I expect is that the possession will come with the score 17-13,
New York needing a touchdown, and as such they go for it because
time is running out. 17-13, Cincinnati.
Bob: Cincinnati
Terry: New York
Dad: Cincinnati
Mike: New York
Molly: New York
Green
Bay at Arizona (2½)
– When you think of Arizona… what crosses your mind? Is it the
high-octane wide receivers that allow Kurt Warner to lead a new
and slightly less powerful edition of the greatest Show on Turf?
Is it a swarming defense? I mean… seriously… better offense? Better
defense? You’re picking Arizona both times… right? Well… hold
on. Green Bay scored 86 more points than Arizona this year. That’s
a pretty substantial 5 per game. And on defense, the Packers allowed
28 fewer points than the Cardinals. Suddenly, last week’s game
might not bee as much of a fluke as the end of the year may have
seemed. (Want more? Ok.) Take out the bad loss… Tampa. The other
four losses for Green Bay involve two to Minnesota (no shame there…
the Vikings are the second seed and a Super Bowl favorite for
many), one to Cincinnati (an early season loss to an eventual
division winner), and one to Pittsburgh (a ridiculous 1-point
loss on the road, that was simply an insane game to watch). For
the rest of the season… 4-0 against division opponents, and they
defeated playoff teams like Dallas, Baltimore and even Arizona
(in three games where they controlled the games pretty convincingly).
Arizona is 1-2 against playoff teams at home (lost to Green Bay
and Indianapolis, defeated Minnesota), and those are the only
playoff teams they faced. They went 6-2 on the road… but this
game is at home. Uh-oh… they’re 4-4 at home. Don’t buy the last
game being important idea? Ok… they went 2-2 in the last four
games. The victories were over Detroit and St. Louis. You know
about Green Bay. They also lost to San Francisco… and in the two
losses the managed to score a combined 16 points. I just don’t
see a second year of unexpected victories for them.
Bob: Green Bay
Terry: Green Bay
Dad: Green Bay
Mike: Green Bay
Gus: Arizona
Philadelphia
at Dallas (3½)
– If you took all of the other 11 playoff teams and told them
they had to go into Dallas, I can think of no better club than
Philadelphia to not be concerned by that. San Diego… sure. New
England or Indianapolis would relish the challenge. But the reality
is, the Eagles are the most likely to play their game and not
get distracted. I don’t think that phases them in the least. And
to be fair… what we have here is the classic battle between offense
and defense. Philly’s ability to score against Dallas’s ability
to not give up points. It’s an amazingly complex puzzle to sort
out. In two games already played, the Cowboys shut down the Eagles…
20-16 and 24-0. Check out the 11-5 record and you’ll find that
every one of Philly’s victories involved them scored 24 or more
points… and every time they were below 24 points, they lost. (Seriously…
22 against New Orleans, a loss… 23 against San Diego, a loss…
9 against the Raiders, 16 and 0 against the Cowboys, loss, loss,
loss.) So right off the bat we’ve established, the Eagles must
have… must have… at least 4 scores to win this game. Only twice
all season have the Cowboys surrendered 22 or more… both were
against the Giants. (Geez… put it that way and suddenly I’m really
questioning my selection.) The thing is… I’m going to go to the
quarterbacks here. And in the playoffs, Donavan McNabb has delivered
in the early rounds, Tony Romo has not. I may not love McNabb
(in fact, as with Favre, I look forward to watching his mistake
that costs his team in the postseason when it arrives next week),
but I don’t know how much you can trust previous games between
division rivals… even though the evidence looks compelling. Why?
Well… one reason is how explosive the Eagles can be. In 8 of their
games this season, they scored 20 or more in the first half of
the game. 3 times they reached at least 30. And my gut feeling…
well… I’m wondering how long Dallas can hold the Eagles in check.
Bob: Philadelphia
Terry: Philadelphia
Dad: Dallas
Mike: Dallas
Molly: Philadelphia