So,
here’s a question. Of the two-plus dozen starting quarterbacks
in the NFL, which ones will you remember in ten years?
I
say two-plus dozen because often several teams don’t have what
we would really call a starting quarterback starting. Last year,
Dwayne Haskins was a starter. Same with Nick Foles. Tyrod Taylor.
Yes, I said Tyrod Taylor. (And if you don’t understand the joke
involved in saying that Nick Foles was starting, you should probably
stop reading now. You won’t find anything too much clearer coming
up. Actually, take the next test, and then decide.)
Give
your response when presented with the following: In ten years,
the name Gardner Minshew will come quickly to my mind because…
(1) He was a dominant force. (2) It’s a name that came to mind
more quickly than Brad Johnson. (3) “Who is Gardner Minshew?”
I
had barely posted the essay “The next great QB” and the responses
hit. Not a massive wave. Not a crazy wave. (And perhaps not that
quickly.) But they came.
Perhaps
my favorite from the initial offerings was one that wanted me
to understand that next year’s Super Bowl was going to feature
Los Angeles against Indianapolis, Stafford against Wentz. (So,
there you go. We can all wrap this up now. Make your wagers accordingly,
and remember to bet with your head, not your heart. Bet responsibly.
Have a good evening.)
(Still
here? Ok…)
Three
the other e-mails went in a different direction. Basically, they
supported Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. Said greatness
was already upon us, and these were the three to take us there.
And my response is simple.
That’s
awesome.
Wrong.
But awesome.
Sports
should be a discussion where different opinions come into play.
And if someone wants to take the next great subject line and interpret
it to cover the ground of a 33-year-old Matthew Stafford taking
over the Rams for a four or so year run of brilliance, I can appreciate
the attempt.
The
problem is… well… there are problems. And not just with Stafford’s
age and using a measuring stick of games played as opposed to
games left to play.
Some
people only want to twist information to support their position.
Then they quickly—really quickly—place fingers in their ears,
makes noises, and ignore every shred of additional information.
For instance, let’s think about Tom Brady and the Super Bowl.
Remove
the win with Tampa Bay, and we hit a list of 6 titles. Margins
of victory? 3, 3, 3 to start things off. 4, 6 and 10 for the next
three. The two largest margins, 6 and 10 point victories, are
an overtime triumph and a 13-3 offensive fireworks display. In
short, not exactly a show of force. From those results in victory,
there are people that argue quite strongly about how fortunate
Brady is and demand the agreement of all that he could easily
be 0-9 with New England in the big game.
And
as they finish telling you he’s never led the Patriots to a convincing
title win, they really do place their fingers in their ears, close
their eyes and turn away from you.
Those
same people aren’t willing to acknowledged in the grasp rulings,
amazing catches, and that Brady could just as easily have been
9-0 with New England in the mystical world of what-if conditions.
The same theory they apply to six wins they refuse to allow be
applied to the three losses.
If
you’re going to approach the world with coin-flip logic, you can’t
do it by only accepting the flips where it comes up tails.
Josh
Allen’s work looked pretty darn good in 2020. Nudging up against
a 70% completion rate. Yardage and touchdown numbers also exploded.
Best season of his career.
And
here’s a funny addition to our conversation, compare—on a really
baseline level—Allen to Brady. 2019 to 2020. Brady was called
old and finished after 2019, though a few people pointed at his
receivers in New England and cautioned people about jumping to
conclusions. 2020 finds him in Tampa Bay and a top five quarterback
again. First two years of his career, Allen can’t complete 59%
of his passes, and barely throws for 3,000 yards in one year and
5,000 combined over two. Allen watches Stefan Diggs get added.
With Diggs, he blossoms.
If
people want to believe that 2020 Allen is closer to the reality
from this point on, I think they actually have a decent foundation
to build upon. Direct my attention to Brady, and defend the stance
of how good Allen is by shadowing what happens when quarterbacks
grow and have weapons.
Well
done. It could happen. But I equally believe you have to consider
the first two-thirds of his career. And…
Let’s
face it, Patrick Mahomes may not be fair for anyone as a bar to
clear. Remove his rookie year, when he didn’t start. During his
three years as a starter he’s won an MVP and a Super Bowl MVP,
while leading Kansas City to the AFC title game, two Super Bowl
appearances and a Super Bowl win. Three years as a starter, three
AFC championship games played, two won. Sure, yeah, that’s normal
and a reasonable expectation to have for a young quarterback.
So,
yes, use more than the eye test. Don’t judge Allen only based
on wild throws or scary looks when he takes off running to escape
pressure. Use the full body of work. (But don’t ignore the wild
throws and scary looks either.)