I
could see any of three teams winning this division. Philly is
the best option to pick, but both Miami and Atlanta have reasons
to stake a claim. In the end, I expect all three to make the playoffs.
The
interesting thing here is that the biggest market… New York… is
home to the team in the biggest trouble.
Philadelphia
Phillies
What I expect in 2012: 93-69
What
they did in 2011: 102-60
Key
personnel changes: Brought in Jonathan Papelbon while
letting Ryan Madsen walk. The return of Jim Thome!
My
expectations: The Phillies probably won’t win 93… and
might not make the playoffs.
This
is a club built on pitching. Actually… more specifically… starting
pitching. Simple as that. And with Roy Oswalt gone, there could
be questions. Though let’s be realistic… Halladay, Lee and Hamels
are nice answers.
Still…
why do I think actually seeing them in first place is unlikely?
There is plenty here to defend as a division winner, and so… after
102 wins last year… Halladay, Lee and Hamels on the roster… I’ll
tip the cap and give them the benefit of the doubt.
I’m
looking at that idea of them falling short though for a simple
reason… if anyone can tell you when Ryan Howard or Chase Utley
will be playing, then you know when this team might create some
fear offensively. And yet… even with both of them… fear isn’t
a word that comes to mind for opposing teams when dealing with
the Philadelphia bats.
As
long as the big three can deliver about 100 starts though… things
in Philadelphia look ok. Papelbon should be fine as the closer…
though I have to be honest, the way he was handed the ball by
Daniel Bard is going to be something he’ll miss. This is not a
good bullpen around him.
Where
it could all go wrong (or, I suppose, right): We start
with the loss of Howard and Utley. This team had trouble scoring
runs in the National League with those two. Without them… suddenly
they are looking every bit like one of the older rosters in the
major leagues.
Now…
if you want to throw Jim Thome and Hunter Pence at me… that works.
But this is a club that was near the top of the National League
in runs scored for about seven or eight seasons… and then last
year they dropped off. A full season from Pence and the contributions
of aging veteran Thome are not locks to bring back the glory days
with Howard and Utley out of the mix.
There
also isn’t much depth that I can find on the roster. With Oswalt
gone (and though not signed, he’s unlikely to return here when
he does sign in a few weeks), the starting rotation is already
playing the “Joe Blanton is nice insurance” card.
Miami
Marlins
What I expect in 2012: 91-71
What
they did in 2011: 72-90
Key
personnel changes: How can you complain about adding
Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell? You can’t… so don’t try.
The
dollars may have been big… but they may have set themselves up
for big results as well.
We
also add a new stadium and Ozzie Guillen.
2012
is shaping up as a very interesting season for the newly named
Miami Marlins… and I’m so impressed with their approach, I’m going
to use their new name right from the start.
My
expectations: I think they’re moving into the playoffs.
If not winning a slot outright as a division winner (possible
though not likely), the addition of a second wild card slot puts
them right into the conversation and a very likely postseason
participant.
I
understand Zambrano is a risk… and probably not an improvement
over what Miami had in place for their rotation. Got it. Against
National League opponents though, they are very good, and their
starters of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal
Sanchez and Zambrano could be the tops in the NL East this season.
(I don’t expect it… there is not a history of perfect health here…
but every one of these guys could be one of the top two starters
for the Mets this year.)
Heath
Bell should steady a bullpen that has good arms, shows promise,
but lacks experience… at least successful experience.
And
now… with Ramirez and Reyes in place, the Marlins have speed,
switch-hitting, and danger in the first three slots of the order.
If they can get the rest of their position players sorted out
and healthy, they will drive opponents crazy every night.
Where
it could all go wrong (or, I suppose, right): Reyes,
Ramirez and Johnson have to remain healthy… simple as that. They
are the true source of power for this club… and success will come
from there. If they stay on the field, the Marlins will field
a two MVP candidates and a serious Cy Young contender.
There
have been some questions about the health of expected starters
and the depth of the bench. Shouldn’t be surprising for a club
that has normally based its roster on a restricted payroll.
The
nice thing for the Marlins is that they don’t live in a media
circus. While people in Philly are wondering about Chase Utley’s
health and watching Ryan Howard’s stats for any sign of decline
as the big money gets ready to roll in his direction, the Miami
Marlins should be running off solid strings of 6 and 7 victories
out of every 10.
Atlanta
Braves
What I expect in 2012: 90-72
What
they did in 2011: 89-73
Key
personnel changes: None.
Honestly.
They traded Derek Lowe. That’s just about it. (Unless Jack Wilson
excites you.)
My
expectations: After announcing his intention to make
2012 his final season, Chipper Jones went for surgery. He shouldn’t
be out long, but it may be worth noting that a destiny-filled
tour of triumph may not play out perfectly for Jones or the Braves.
And
injuries are where we start.
Tim
Hudson is likely out for a decent amount of time. Perhaps as many
as the first 40-games. Tommy Hanson is possibly headed to a later
rather than sooner appearance when the regular season begins,
having suffered a concussion that put him about a week behind
his teammates. (And we shouldn’t forget that Hanson and Jair Jurrnes
had late season injury problems in 2011.)
Toss
in questions about Jason Heyward and we have a wonderful start
for 2012 in focus here for Atlanta.
The
reality though is that the Braves escaped last season’s collapse
fairly quietly compared to the Red Sox. And… we find a club that
didn’t make too many changes. If it weren’t for a very improved
division, the Braves would actually be sitting in good shape for
a playoff spot considering the extra invitation being offered
in 2012.
The
problems begin with something like Jones though… where his absence
suddenly shifts the use of the roster for all the other positions
and the bench. And so as the season begins, I would look closely
to see if things are steady and organized, or an attempt to stay
afloat until the roster gets back on the field.
Where
it could all go wrong (or, I suppose, right): This could
go in either direction.
If
Heyward comes back strong and the starting rotation doesn’t suffer
any more hits… then the Braves are a contender for the division
title. And, having not traded Jair Jurrjens could help them start
the year, and then provide them with a trade option in July. It’s
not hard to see them succeeding.
And
then again… well…
We’re
kind of counting on players returning to form. Brian McCann and
Heyward leading the way for the regulars. And that’s ok… because
I’m a big believer in a player’s career average being a good gauge
for a reason. One person does a little bit more than normal… another
does a little less… and in the end you get the production you
might expect.
The
trouble?
The
Braves are counting on a bullpen that features Kimbrel, Venters
and O’Flaherty. This trio delivered almost 240 innings of solid
pitching last season. All of them offered career highs in innings
and career best performances. Now they’re all young, and all good,
so maybe we are seeing the start of something that will be two,
three or more years of pretty special. But relievers often vary
from year to year for a reason… and they shared quite a workload
in 2011.
This
could be… and should be… very good.
And
Atlanta is also the first place you should look if you think Washington
is capable of cracking the top three in the division.
Washington
Nationals
What I expect in 2012: 78-84
What
they did in 2011: 80-81
Key
personnel changes: Brought in Gio Gonzalez on a trade
and Edwin Jackson through free agency.
My
expectations: This is one place where that gosh-darn
one-team-wins-one-team-loses problem becomes a nightmare. Why?
Because the Nationals are bordering on a very decent club in a
division filled with roadblocks. Maybe the wins come from the
Mets and opponents outside the division. The problem is… Philly,
Miami and Atlanta are powerhouses inside the division.
So…
do I have them too low? Yeah… I probably do. This is a team that
could contend for the playoffs with the extra spot available.
But… well… let’s just take a look…
I
wanted to start this section by saying “so close, so untested”
as a thought. Let’s face it… the media loves Strasburg and Harper
as stories. And that isn’t a bad thing, or even misplaced attention.
Both players are likely to be important to the success of the
organization.
But
let’s face it… Harper won’t be with the club when the season starts,
and Strasburg has 17 major league starts over two seasons. Seriously…
I wanted to say they were untested… am I right?
Ok…
let’s get to the close part…
The
rotation is pretty solid. Not awesome… yet… that’s the Strasburg
and untested part. But adding Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson to
Strasburg and Ryan Zimmermann gives this club above average arms
all the way through the starting rotation. That’s nice.
The
organization has shown a willingness to invest on the field. Hey…
I may think the Jayson Werth signing was a huge reach… you still
have to give them some credit for pushing their chips into the
pot. The club made plays for Prince Fielder, and is getting serious
looks from players instead of being used to drive up eventual
contract agreements elsewhere or being viewed as a “no way” destination.
So that’s nice too.
There
are worse things on the planet than having Adam LaRoche and Rick
Ankiel on the 25-man roster. And that’s where youth like Bryce
Harper becomes interesting.
See?
Moving in a very positive direction.
The
problems of course head right back to what I just outlined. LaRoche
and Ankiel are fine… but this batting order will be streaky and,
overall, lacking in production. While the pitching looks really
good on paper, as we all know the games are never played on paper.
I
think we’re at the beginning of a good story. This is an organization
that is looking right at being there when the division turns over.
(Let’s not forget, Philly is an aging group that will not easily
be able to replace their pitching stars and already are showing
cracks on the field.) But we’re not quite there yet.
Where
it could all go wrong (or, I suppose, right): We turn
to Ryan Zimmerman.
In
2009, Zimmerman broke out with a monster season… 157 games played,
a .292 average, 33 home runs, and all stats backing the arrival
of a young star.
Zimmerman
had a higher average in 2010, but dropped to 142 games played
and reduced numbers in other areas that seemed a bit more off
than something as easy to see as 15 less games played.
In
2011… 101 games played.
So
the reality is… Washington needs to get their players on the field.
It may actually be just that easy. If you tell me Zimmerman is
going to play 150-plus, Strasburg and three other starters will
combine for 120-plus of the starts on the year… then yes, I’m
beginning to see a club that could get into that range of 83 to
85 wins this season.
For
now though, I’ll just place them as a good club, growing into
potential, and facing a tough division test.
New
York Mets
What I expect in 2012: 65-97
What
they did in 2011: 72-90
Key
personnel changes: Jose Reyes is gone.
My
expectations: Ok… let’s skip the fun stuff… you know,
like noting how the Mets are the worst team in their division,
from front office to the major league roster, and it isn’t even
close. That’s too easy.
Instead,
let’s see some hope.
The
money issues off the field may be calming down, and Sandy Alderson
is a decent baseball guy to run this group.
There
are several young players on the roster now (Ruben Tejada and
Jon Niese as examples) and more on the way (Zack Wheeler and Matt
Harvey). So, we could see some developing talent.
Yes,
there is some hope.
The
problems come from the foundation. What is Johan Santana going
to offer? How about Jason Bay? Those are two players tying up
huge chunks of money, and both of them are likely to be gone before
this organization contends again. (Want to see the Mets get a
huge lift? Santana and Bay playing well enough to be trade options
would fit that idea… it’s not likely to happen, but it would be
big if it did.)
Where
it could all go wrong (or, I suppose, right): Here’s
a funny situation. According to the new agreement between baseball
and the players association, there are conditions in place for
how a team can offer arbitration to a player acquired in a trade.
Basically it appears that the expiring contract dump is no longer
in play. So… David Wright…
If
he gets traded mid-season in 2012: (1) the team option for 2013
can be voided per his contract, and (2) per the new rules, having
not been with the acquiring team for a full year he cannot be
offered arbitration after the 2012 season. But, if the Mets pick
up his option next off-season and then trade him, the acquiring
team would be able to offer him arbitration after the 2013 season
because he will have been with them for a full season. Understand
that? In short… Wright may be worth more next December than he
is this July.
And
that’s where the Mets are. Every team in the division is better.
Their star names are players they might be more interested in
trading than keeping. They aren’t a place where free agents want
to go right now, and even with some concerns dying down they don’t
have financial room to sign free agents anyway.
They’re
probably better than where I have them right now… but folks, the
wins and losses have to go someplace. And if the Marlins are better
(and they are)… and if the Nationals could be good (and they could
be)… where are these wins coming from?