Flipping
radio stations the other day. Blurb came up for a show. Guy in
the blurb said something about more people being alive today than
the total that have died throughout history. And that kind of
made me want more details. Had I heard it wrong? Was it being
presented sarcastically as part of some larger discussion and
I missed the theme?
But
it was a commercial for the show, it ended with no more, and I
changed stations.
A
few days later, I heard the ad again. And if I missed something
the first time, I missed it the second time as well. Because it
sure sounded like the person was saying more people are alive
right now than have died in all of history to this point.
The
thing about my curiosity is based on my having heard this claim
before. I kind of remembered it being a really way off claim that
wasn’t true. But I just couldn’t recall whether my memory was
right.
In
general, the idea actually sounds pretty enticing. Advancement
in medicine over let’s say just the past two hundred years means
that life expectancies today are significantly greater than they
were in 1800. In fact, for most of the world, it has just about
doubled. Seriously…
Until
the range of years reaches 1850 to 1900, most places around the
globe had life expectancies of less than 40 years. Today, most
locations top 70 years and just about all are solidly above 60.
And
if you want to go back further than that, well, five hundred or
one thousand or more years ago things weren’t as good as they
were in 1800.
Two
simple reasons for the improvements? Farming and cleanliness.
We’ve improved our efforts with agriculture, while at the same
time improving sanitation.
Now,
funny thing, around the same time we see these life expectancy
numbers improving is also about the time we can look at somewhat
accurate records for the total number of people alive at that
moment. That’s about when we begin getting a better handle on
information for population growth rates and more. In essence,
before the past two hundred years, the numbers are guesses.
So,
people are living longer, which means more people around to span
multiple generations. Plus, better details about exactly what
the entire planet looks like. And the great thing is, lately we’ve
arrived at a point where the guesses are darn good ones. Most
studies and researchers are able to adjust factors for various
circumstances and variables, while all seem to be narrowing in
on similar results when putting this type of question into perspective.
So…
are there more people alive right now then the full total of people
that have died?
Interesting
question.
The
answer isn’t even close.
Most
scientists have what they refer to as something of an Adam and
Eve moment. In short, no matter what your religious beliefs may
be, in order to extend the population we need to have a first
couple identified. And for that, the population is set at 2, and
roughly has been placed around 52,000 years ago in 50000 BC.
The
population climb moves along slowly at first. But the death rates
are staggering. Somewhere around 1600… by percentages about 52,000
years into our 52,000 years… estimates place the living population
at 500 million. Conservative estimates for the same date say that
at that point more than 86 billion people had died.
Give
or take a few hundred million, most groups providing such information
say that about 7.7 billion people are alive right now. To get
here, more than 108 billion have died.
Yeah…
that’s right… it sounds amazing to suggest that more people are
alive on Earth right now than the entire collected history of
those that have died. But the far more likely reality is that
even with a population explosion of sorts over the past four hundred
years, better medical care and other factors helping us live longer,
the current population is about 7% of those that ever lived. And
with birth rates declining and a planet that really is never going
to be home to more than one hundred billion people at the same
time, the idea is never going to be close to true.
It
sounds interesting when you hear it. But it provides a good lesson
to do a bit of research, since not everything that sounds possible
turns out to be true. And occasionally, it’s not even close.