I
didn’t say bomb.
Deliberately.
I
did not say box office bomb.
Reports
are circulating in trade publications… or, at least publications
with areas focusing on films, movie theaters and box office stuff…
that Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is settling
in at an overall loss of around $125 to $135 million dollars.
That comes in for a production that finished it’s screen run somewhere
just shy of $400 million.
I’m
not sure why this particular movie and this particular financial
disclosure set me off to finally write this essay. And, I do mean
finally, since it’s one that’s been kicking around in my mind
for some time. Let’s toss a few logs on the fire…
First
– There’s more to the cost of a film than the film itself. You
likely know this, but marketing and all sorts of publicity efforts
go into the package. As a generic rule of thumb, the idea is that
a good PR campaign will be set at roughly fifty-percent of a film’s
production budget. So, if it costs $100 million to make the movie,
the advertising and such will be budgeted at $50 million. Total
cost isn’t $100 million, it’s $150 million.
Second
– Kind of a known item, and potentially more a bit of a sidenote,
but absolutely worthy of a mention here. Studios have forever
been known to play games with the final numbers. Given their preferences,
there are some that would joke that no movie ever released has
made a profit.
Third
– Ever heard of a loss leader? The fundamental concept for it
is that in certain business efforts, a sacrificial item is put
in place that absolutely won’t make money. Those in charge know
it’s going to lose money. But, the very presence of it raises
other boats (so to speak). For Disney and its portfolio, a movie
is rarely just box office numbers. It’s also merchandise sales,
as just one additional instance.
There’s
more to the story, but this lays out enough information for us
to have this understanding: There is often a lot taking place
behind the scenes.
We’ll
stick with Disney. We all know that the dollars generated by Darth
Vadar, Iron Man and Lightning McQueen come from more than just
movie theaters. There are toys and video games and clothing. The
films slide over to the streaming service, which means Disney+
subscriptions.
Let’s
apply that roughly fifty-percent rule. Pixar releases a new film
featuring Woody and Buzz Lightyear. (Hey, in case you didn’t know,
Toy Story 5 is being developed for a 2026 release.) Let’s
set the budget at $200 million, which makes the cost likely in
the range of $300 million.
So
far, you’re with me, right? Ok…
Given
the previous installments, I think all of us would expect a high-quality
effort that easily passes $300 million in box office earnings.
But, for our argument here, let’s say it makes $250 million in
theaters.
Disappointing?
Probably. In fact, most definitely.
But
there are going to be action figures and games. Pixar and the
Toy Story brand are all over the theme parks. Plus, it’s
not just Duke Caboom making the extreme appearances in the merchandise
catalogue though, as you can buy all sorts of Forky items.
(Seriously.
I was in a store at the Hollywood Studios theme park, chuckling
about a Forky action figure for sale. I took a picture of it and
texted it to a few folks with a joke about the price. As I was
putting my phone away, a young girl came running up to the display,
grabbed a Forky box and ran screaming “mom, mom, mom” as she headed
to a woman at a register. So, yeah, they sell.)
The
film finishes $50 million short of what we were told it needed
to break even on its own. But if the toys create a profit of tens
of tens of millions, and if theme park attendance is up, and if
a new wave of kids want to watch all of the Toy Story
efforts on Disney+… end result, we all recognize it isn’t just
the box office.
Back
to Indiana Jones.
I
will absolutely grant you that Indiana Jones isn’t the same merchandising
printer of cash he once was. Fair observation there. The character
and brand aren’t the first mentioned when it comes to theme park
attractions. There are many that will argue about what the creators
intended and where their ideas and development may or may not
have had issues. Still…
Is
the fifth film a box office bomb?
On
its own, yes, it probably is. The receipts from theaters don’t
add up to make an argument that it isn’t.
But
it’s never just those receipts. They are, perhaps, accurate as
an observation that is isolated on its own and not the whole story.
But in our attention-span-challenged, get the blurb right to generate
the clicks and damn the accuracy of the content world, it doesn’t
matter if you’re exactly right and frequently no one reads the
whole story.
Let’s
understand, there have been plenty of plans that never worked
out. Carefully considered , detailed and assembled roadmaps for
journeys a franchise would take, only to find that journey end
after one season of a television show or a single film release.
Franchise intentions that never became franchise realities. However,
we keep being presented with superhero fatigue reports and news
items, as if superhero films are going away because we as the
audience don’t want them anymore. It never seems to be asked,
when this one or that one doesn’t reach expectations, if as just
one possibility it’s more likely we didn’t want this particular
superhero film.
Indiana
Jones and the Dial of Destiny was not a good movie. It was
ok. Not horrible. Though a lot of the ok of it is likely generated
by a love of the character and nostalgia more than the story being
presented by it. But calling it a dud misses the mark. Dud and
bomb suggest finished. Done. Not worth it. For Indy, somewhere,
there are conversations taking place with a theme about what could
be next for the character.
Could
some story be developed that might just nudge Harrison Ford back?
Does the franchise need an overhaul and fresh start? (And before
you go crazy, I’m not saying Ford would, could or will play the
part again. I’m saying someone is wondering if it could happen,
and someone else is wondering if they could create the project
to do it.) Lots of questions and conversations taking place.
Sometimes
the magic is simply lost on a story that doesn’t match the expectations.
That doesn’t mean the magic is gone for good. Doesn’t mean it
didn’t earn a profit. And, on its own, it doesn’t mean that the
dollars don’t make sense.